Which traded first-round NBA draft picks have most value? Ranking all 62 as Pelicans’ recent mistake tops list

I’ll admit, after last year’s ranking of every traded first-round pick in the NBA, I assumed I’d discovered the pattern. The 2022 ranking included 47 draft picks. The 2023 ranking had 56. Last year, we got up to 68. I figured we were headed for linear growth and that this year, we’d land somewhere around No. 80. As our headline suggests, that isn’t what happened. We landed at 62.

The raw number of traded first-round picks has, for the first time in the history of this series, actually gone down. Some of that was due to the unusually high number of 2025 picks that were moved ahead of time. Usually, the upcoming draft features more traded first-round picks than any other. Last year, there were 19 traded 2025 picks to rank… and that was almost a full year before that draft arrived. This time around, there are only 13 picks in 2026 to rank.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that fewer picks are getting traded, though. No, this year crystallized a very different trend: the same picks are getting traded multiple times. The De’Aaron Fox trade included four first-round picks, but only one of them originally belonged to San Antonio. The other three had all been previously acquired via trade. The Phoenix Suns traded their 2031 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz at the deadline in exchange for three lesser picks. All three of those picks had moved by the end of the 2025 NBA Draft. There are so many trades involving picks nowadays that we’re actually seeing fewer picks get traded in total because there’s such a vast inventory of external picks available to be moved instead of a team’s own, original selections.

A side effect of that new trend? Some of the most complicated conditions of conveyance you’ll ever see. Do yourself a favor and check out RealGM’s descriptions of some of these picks. They’re full paragraphs now. We’re starting to see trades in which a team will send out the third-most favorable of five selections it owns, protected 1-13, but only if the lottery is held on an odd-numbered Monday in May during a full moon. I’m writing this story and even I can admit that there are a few picks listed below that I’m still struggling with.

Which makes this the perfect time to explain the rules of this exercise. Below, we will rank every first-round pick that does not currently belong to its original team in terms of its desirability as a team-building asset. For the most part, these draft assets are ranked independently. If a pick’s destination depends on where it falls in terms of favorability among several picks, that context will mostly be ignored. There will be a few necessary exceptions that we explain as we go, but for the most part, the goal here is to make these rankings as simple and understandable as is reasonably possible given how complicated the league makes this. For that reason, secondary swap rights will mostly be ignored as well. What this means is, if a team has traded another team the right to swap first-round picks in a given year, and then traded another team that same right in the same season, we will not be ranking each swap separately with a few very notable exceptions. Ultimately, it just doesn’t seem helpful to try to predict if a team will have the third- or fourth-best record out of six teams five years from now.

So, with the rules out of the way, what exactly are we basing these rankings on? Below are the criteria in which we’re judging these picks:

• Protections. This is the most obvious distinction between a potentially valuable pick and a lesser one. The unprotected pick is almost always going to be worth more.
• Point of origin. Is the pick coming from a good team or a bad team? More importantly, where do we expect the team in question to be when the pick is likeliest to convey? Is that team’s roster young or old? Healthy or injury-prone? Do you trust that team’s front office and ownership? A pick’s upside is the single most important factor in its value. Virtually any team would rather have a small chance at a very high pick than a guaranteed pick in the 20’s, and where swap rights are concerned, the value gap between each pick rises the higher pick gets. The difference between the No. 1 pick and the No. 2 pick is enormous. The difference between the No. 20 pick and the No. 21 pick is not.
• Year of conveyance. This is a bit more complicated to measure. All things being equal, most teams would prefer to have a great pick right now than a great pick five years from now. That’s a job security issue as much as anything. General managers don’t want picks they might not stick around long enough to use. But for the most part, picks that are coming up immediately are closer to known quantities. Picks in the future are a bit more nebulous. Therefore, if the pick is coming from a good team, it probably makes more sense to get the pick down the line, when that team might be older, might have dealt with financial issues or might have broken apart for unforeseeable reasons. Remember, draft picks are trade assets as much as they are isolated drafting tools, and when it comes to trade assets, perception matters. If you have a pick seven years out, that’s seven years for the rest of the league to lose faith in the pick’s original owner. The further out the pick, the more opportunity you’ll have to profit off of the perception cycle. The timeline for each pick will be judged based on the team it is coming from.
• Is the pick owed outright or is it owed through a swap? Obviously teams would prefer to keep their own first-rounder, but if the pick is good enough, a swap can be well worth the price. In the case of swaps, the value of the incoming pick will be weighed more heavily, but the value of the outgoing pick will be factored in as well.

One final note before we begin: for the first time in this list’s history, we will not be devoting a blurb to each individual pick. In many cases, picks will be blurbed together. The higher we go, the more space will be devoted to each specific pick. I don’t want you spending all afternoon on this behemoth (a note devoted as much to my poor editors as you readers). With all of that settled, let’s begin.

61. 2026 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We begin with two swaps that will go unfulfilled. Utah is going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. It won’t swap with a contender like Minnesota, which in turn means Cleveland has little to worry about as well. Atlanta can swap with Cleveland, but we’re talking about a 64-win Cavaliers team here. That probably isn’t happening.

60. 2026 Utah Jazz

• Currently belongs to: New York Knicks
• Protections: 1-8
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Our first two owed picks are two of the fakest ones you’ll ever see. You think the Jazz are handing the Thunder the No. 9 pick after an offseason in which they offloaded most of their meaningful veterans? Of course not. Washington’s pick is slightly more valuable if only because the Wizards are in the East, and therefore have a sliver of upside, but they’re not trying to give the Knicks the No. 9 pick either. Washington’s pick at least turns into a second-rounder. Utah’s obligation extinguishes after the season.

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

The Thunder might get a bit of value out of this swap just because, well, they’re the Thunder, and any swap when you’re picking No. 30 is going to be beneficial. Of course, the Rockets could easily be picking No. 29, so the upside here is minimal.

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: 1-20
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-16
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Pick goes to Sacramento if it falls between 1 and 16, or Oklahoma City if it falls between 17 and 30.

55. 2029 Utah Jazz

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? The Hornets will receive the least favorable of Utah, Cleveland and Minnesota’s 2029 first-round picks.

54. 2029 Houston Rockets

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? The Nets will receive the least favorable of Houston, Dallas and Phoenix’s 2029 first-round picks.

Here we have four low-upside picks. If Golden State is bad in 2030, the Wizards get nothing. If the Warriors are good, they get a bad pick. The 2027 Spurs are almost certain to be good, so at least Oklahoma City is likely to get something, but it’s going to be a fairly weak pick. And Charlotte gets the least favorable of three separate picks in the same year. In all likelihood, one of the Jazz, Cavaliers and Timberwolves will be good. The same is true for the Nets in 2029, though the involved picks are a bit juicier.

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: 1-2
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

52. 2028 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz or Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

51. 2028 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We’re finally starting to introduce a little bit of upside. Fast forward a few years and a lot can change. However, we should reasonably expect these teams to be good a few years from now. There literally is not a single player on the current Orlando Magic in his 30s, for instance, and that top-two protection is additional upside loss. The Cavalier and Knick picks come up a bit sooner, and to be fair, this is right around the point at which the second apron will start forcing Cleveland to shed salary. But they still have Evan Mobley, who protects against worst-case outcomes. The Knicks will likely be in the last year of their ultra-expensive cycle as the Karl-Anthony Towns contract nears its conclusion, but they should still have this core in place, even if it is several years older. We don’t know what the Nets will be then.

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

49. 2027 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

48. 2027 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

47. 2027 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Here is our first batch of lightly protected or unprotected picks from good teams in the near future. All except for that Denver pick do come with theoretical upside. Sometimes good teams have injury-plagued seasons. Sometimes weird transactions happen. But in all likelihood, the Nuggets, Cavs, Knicks and Timberwolves are going to be picking late in the first round in 2027. Denver’s pick is protected, so it’s the worst of the bunch. Minnesota is in the West, so it’s the best. Cleveland is just a bit better than New York on the court, so its picks are slightly less valuable off of it.

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

45. 2028 Orlando Magic

We’re in the same genre here as we were above. These picks are just a bit more interesting. The cluster of teams above are all reasonably set in terms of who will be on their rosters. The Lakers aren’t. We assume that they’re going to add another star in the somewhat near future, but without knowing whether or not that happens and what becomes of the supporting cast, there’s just a bit more uncertainty that boosts the value of its pick. Orlando’s pick is just a year later, and when we’re talking about good teams, you want to leave more time for things to change. Still, neither pick here is especially promising. That Laker pick ranked No. 22 last year, but Luka Dončić obviously hurt it tremendously.

44. 2026 Atlanta Hawks

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: 1
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

41. 2030 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: 1
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We’ve reached the “unprotected or lightly protected swap rights owed to the San Antonio Spurs by teams besides the Sacramento Kings” portion of the list. When you factor in the inherent randomness of this sport, odds are one of these picks surprisingly jumps into the lottery for them. However, on the surface, none of them truly stand out. The 2026 Atlanta swap isn’t nearly as exciting as it looked a year ago, but it still belongs to a team in the middle of the first round. There’s room for the Hawks to disappoint, though their strong offseason suggests it’s unlikely. A 2026 swap with Boston would be very interesting, but by 2028, you’d assume Jayson Tatum is back into star shape. The 2030 swaps with Dallas and Minnesota are the best of the bunch here… except the value of each is limited because San Antonio can only use one or the other. We’ll talk about these deep future Minnesota picks in more depth later. There is potential upside to be mined there. It just relies on too many things for a protected swap to generate too much excitement five years out. In a few years? That swap could start to look more enticing.

40. 2028 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

This feels like the sweet spot for a Dallas pick. By 2030, Cooper Flagg is likely so good that owning a swap with the Mavericks won’t be especially desirable. But in 2028? Anthony Davis will be 34, Kyrie Irving will be 35, and they’ll be on the books for a combined $105 million. There’s downside potential there even if Flagg starts to sprout as a star by then, and once again, we’re talking about a Thunder swap. Even if Dallas is, say, a play-in team, a swap is more valuable when you assume the lower end of it is coming from the end of the first round.

39. 2029 Denver Nuggets

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: 1-8
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

37. 2027 San Antonio Spurs

• Currently belongs to: Sacramento Kings
• Protections: 17-30
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Pick goes to Sacramento if it falls between 1 and 16, or Oklahoma City if it falls between 17 and 30.

That 2029 Denver pick is better than its 2027 counterpart just because of the timing. Technically, Nikola Jokić isn’t under contract for 2029 yet. That could and likely will change, but hey, for now, we have to acknowledge the possibility that he isn’t on the team yet. That Philadelphia pick lost a lot of luster this season. For starters, the 76ers got VJ Edgecombe, giving them a top young prospect to mitigate the downside potential that comes with the aging Paul George and Joel Embiid. However, it also lost some value because it delayed Philadelphia’s 2025 obligation to Oklahoma City by a year. That matters because it removed the cushion on the back end of Brooklyn’s pick. Had the 76ers sent Oklahoma City their pick in 2025, the Nets would have gotten a protected 2027 pick that would have moved back to 2028 if it didn’t convey. Instead, if the 2028 76ers pick doesn’t convey now, it just becomes a second-rounder. The Spurs pick has the opposite problem. It only conveys if they’re disappointing in 2027, and that isn’t likely. However, the mere fact that it has to be a good pick if it does convey gives it some value. You never know when it comes to health of abnormally tall centers.

36. 2026 Portland Trail Blazers

• Currently belongs to: Chicago Bulls
• Protections: 1-14
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

You might be a bit confused to see a pick that literally cannot be in the lottery make it up this high. This pick is lottery protected through 2028. If it doesn’t convey, it becomes a second-round pick. However, there is absolutely critical context at play here. In 2028, the Blazers have the right to swap first-round picks with the Bucks. As you’ll see later in this list, those swap rights are obscenely valuable. In case this wasn’t clear, I do not expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to be a member of the Bucks in 2028. Here’s the problem: if Portland doesn’t make the playoffs in 2026 and 2027, but does make the playoffs in 2028, it will have to send its 2028 first-round pick to Chicago and therefore lose the ability to swap with Milwaukee. The Blazers are in the Western Conference. They’ve gotten better, but how confident are you really that they are going to make the playoffs in the next two years? That’s where the value comes. There is no way Portland is going to risk losing those Milwaukee swap rights. Therefore, the Bulls can hold this pick hostage and sell it back to Portland for a premium. The longer the Blazers take to trade for it back, the more valuable it becomes to them. Portland should be trying to get this pick back here and now, while the price is still likely reasonable. If they have to wait until 2028, Chicago is going to command a far steeper price to give it back. So in a vacuum, this Portland pick won’t be great. As a bigger picture asset, though, it has a chance to prove pretty meaningful.

35. 2029 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

There’s real reason to be skeptical about the 2028-29 Minnesota Timberwolves. That is the last season of Anthony Edwards’ current contract, for instance, so if he decides he wants to leave Minnesota, there’s a chance he forces a trade in the summer of 2028. Several older players on the current roster, most notably Rudy Gobert, will likely have aged out of their primes by then as well. But that top-five protection knocks out your best-case outcomes, and the likelihood for now that Edwards stays increases the odds of this pick coming in pretty late. Were this pick unprotected, it would be 10 or so spots higher. As is, it’s a mediocre pick.

34. 2027 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets
• Protections: 1-5
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

Clipper picks are among the hardest to rank on this entire list. On the one hand, this is a smart front office that can use the Los Angeles market to recruit. On the other, they have the oldest roster in the NBA history, and they are the Clippers. Their picks won’t reach the absolute top of the list, but the upside is considerable. This team could collapse at any time in a loaded West, and without control of their own picks until 2030, they’ll have a harder time trading their way back into relevance if that happens. The hope seems to be rebuilding through free agency, but in the post-COVID NBA, few teams have done so successfully. They could trade those deep future picks, but given all of the picks they’ve already given up, surely they want to eventually regain control of their picks, right? This is the least valuable of the owed Clipper picks because of that top-five protection, but several other ones will reach far higher on this list.

33. 2030 Orlando Magic

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

32. 2029 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

31. 2029 Los Angeles Lakers

• Currently belongs to: Dallas Mavericks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Here’s our first batch of unprotected picks that are relatively deep into the future. As you’ll see later on that list, this is a desirable genre of pick. These specific teams just lessen that value meaningfully. Again, the Magic are so young that a 2030 pick from them doesn’t figure to be all that good yet. Paolo Banchero will be 28 when it conveys. The same is true in Cleveland. Evan Mobley will be 28 in 2029. The Laker pick probably has the most upside of the three because so much of their future is tied into Dončić and the contract extension he signed over the weekend only locks him up through the 2027-28 season. However, we’re still talking about the Lakers, and the safe bet is that Dončić is still on the team in 2029, so it can only really get to the middle of the list.

30. 2029 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: 1-3
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

We’ve come to our second Clipper swap, and this one is a bit more enticing because it only has that top-three protection. The Clippers have more time to change course between now and 2029, but that also means their roster has more time to fester. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden could conceivably still be All-Star-level players in 2027. By 2029, they’ll both almost certainly be beyond that stage in their careers. If they don’t find a pivot, this pick could be very good. And if the Clippers reach 2029 without having attracted a new star? They might simply bite the bullet, accept a down year and then rebuild the old fashioned way after, as this is the last year in which they owe a pick.

29. 2029 Boston Celtics

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers or Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

28. 2029 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets or Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

We’re going to talk about that 2029 Boston pick in the context of a few others momentarily. For now, it has reasonable upside because we don’t know what Jayson Tatum will look like that far removed from his torn Achilles. Jaylen Brown will be 32 at this point, and Derrick White will be 35. This might be a transitional point for Boston, but it’s still Boston. The Celtics are an exceedingly well-run team, unlikely to dip too far. Dallas is in the opposite position. The Mavericks are run by Nico Harrison, who, frankly, is not very good at this. Cooper Flagg in Year 4 probably protects against worst-case outcomes, but as we covered above, this will either be roughly the end for Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, or it will be the beginning of whatever the next phase is for the Dallas roster. The Mavericks likely won’t be picking at the absolute bottom of the league (man… imagine if they hadn’t won Flagg), but there is certainly some degree of upside where that pick is concerned.

27. 2029 Portland Trail Blazers

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Washington receives the second-most favorable first-round pick between the Blazers, Bucks and Celtics. The Blazers receive the most and least favorable.

I’m torn on this pick. I could have justified placing it five spots higher of 10 spots lower. Usually, I’m very against picks that are not the most favorable out of a bunch. Relying on multiple teams to be bad is usually risky. Except… one of the picks involved in this discussion is literally the No. 2 pick on this entire list. I’m that eager to short the Bucks. So let’s say Milwaukee is bad in 2029. Now, suddenly, this is just the most favorable of Portland’s and Boston’s. As we just covered above, that Boston pick has a bit of upside. As for Portland, it’s pretty uncertain, but that works in both directions. So by that logic, you’d have to rank this pick higher. The reason I can’t is the reality that even the No. 2 pick on this list carries uncertainty. It’s four years away. Case in point, the 2022 list came out three years ago. The second-highest 2025 pick on that list belonged to the Clippers, and it came in at No. 24. Therefore, we’re splitting the difference here. This is as high as I can imagine ranking a second-most favorable pick. The inclusion of Milwaukee’s selection boosts the upside considerably. There’s just enough downside baked into the structure of the pick itself that I can’t push it any higher.

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: 1-14
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

25. 2027 Atlanta Hawks

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

The Heat pick is a tad misleading. It’s lottery-protected, yes, but only for one year. If it doesn’t convey in 2027, it becomes unprotected in 2028. That’s valuable coming from a Heat team that, frankly, looks pretty directionless right now. The Heat look like a play-in team right now, and by 2027, the Pacers and Celtics will presumably be back in the fray and some of the Eastern Conference’s younger teams could be competitive. Unless the Heat pull another star rabbit out of the hat, I’m pretty eager to short them. I’m much more bullish on the Hawks generally, but 2027 is a uniquely vulnerable season for them. Trae Young and Kristaps Porziņģis aren’t under contract yet, and as we’ll address later, the Hawks could have a very valuable rookie join the team for the 2026-27 season. That will help them in the long term, but hurt them in the short term. Young re-signing would push this pick back several slots. Until he does, though, there’s enough upside to rank Atlanta here.

24. 2027 Dallas Mavericks

• Currently belongs to: Charlotte Hornets
• Protections: 1-2
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Even with that top-two protection, this is the best Dallas pick of the bunch. Flagg likely won’t be anywhere close to his prime yet, but all of the scary Davis- and Irving-induced worst-case scenarios are still in play. We can reasonably assume the Western Conference will be as scary in 2027 as it is in 2026. My early guess is that Dallas is a play-in team in both 2026 and 2027, potentially giving you access to a late lottery pick with a puncher’s chance of moving up (which is ironically how Dallas got Flagg).

23. 2029 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

This is right around when we should expect the Knicks to take a step back. Based on their current cap structure, we should expect them to spend the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons in the second apron, but if they do so, they’ll have to duck back under it for the 2028-29 campaign to make sure their 2034 first-round pick doesn’t automatically drop to No. 30. The Knicks may not be bad by 2029, but their peak contending years will be behind them and multiple core players may be gone. Without picks to replace them, New York should decline around 2029.

22. 2026 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

OK this is a somewhat complicated situation. In this slot, we are just ranking Washington’s ability to swap places with Phoenix in 2026. Separately, we will rank where Phoenix’s pick is likely to actually end up. So, if Washington isn’t where Phoenix’s pick is likely to end up, why is it ranked so high? Because of the lottery system. Let’s imagine a scenario in which Washington and Phoenix finish in the same slots they did last year. Washington would have the No. 2 slot… but it would also have the No. 10 slot, because if Phoenix moves up, the Wizards would just swap picks with them. So Washington will probably be worse than Phoenix this season, and therefore is unlikely to actually swap picks with the Suns. But getting an extra set of ping pong balls in the flattened lottery odds era is enormously valuable.

21. 2028 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap, but Portland has the right to swap first

20. 2026 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

19. 2026 Philadelphia 76ers

• Currently belongs to: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Finally, some normal picks, both of which are going to the Thunder. You could flip these if you wanted. The Clipper pick is unprotected, and there is definite upside in controlling a pick from the oldest team in NBA history in a strong West. However, it’s probably likelier that the Clippers are better than that the 76ers are. Oklahoma City just lived through a Philadelphia pick last year, which it ultimately didn’t get because it fell within the protected range and became VJ Edgecombe. Still, this pick’s protection is only 1-4, and it would take another true calamity for the 76ers to keep this pick. Even if that calamity comes, the lottery gods might not be as kind to them as they were a year ago. Either way, the Thunder control first-round picks from the teams that employ Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard in 2026. That’s a pretty enviable position to be in.

• Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: 1-4
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Atlanta gets the lesser of New Orleans’ and Milwaukee’s 2027 first-round picks, unless both fall between 1-4.

As we’ve covered, it’s rare to put a “least favorable” pick this high, but it’s the least favorable of two teams in the very near future who have pretty bleak outlooks. The Pelicans were just the fourth-worst team in the NBA. As I’ve written, I don’t expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to be on the Bucks during the 2026-27 season. Both New Orleans and Atlanta should be happy with the picks they end up with here. If this selection was unprotected like a similar pick we’ll get to later, it’d be ranked even higher.

17. 2031 Minnesota Timberwolves

• Currently belongs to: Sacramento Kings
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

16. 2031 New York Knicks

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

And so we’ve reached a category that is almost automatically valuable: unprotected picks practically as far out as possible from win-now teams. I can’t tell if the Knicks or Timberwolves are going to be bad in 2031. Maybe Edwards plays his whole career in Minnesota and the Timberwolves are perpetual contenders. Maybe the Knicks have attracted a new superstar to the Big Apple by 2031. I don’t know. I’d guess both are indeed bad by 2031, but it’s not guarantee. What I can state relatively comfortably is that, at some point between now and 2031, the league will think the Knicks and Timberwolves are trending down, and that will make these picks very valuable trade chips.

15. 2028 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

For the third and final time, we discuss the 2028 Milwaukee Bucks. Yes, we’ve covered the complicated scenarios that pick could be involved in, but this is the simple one. If Portland makes the playoffs in 2026 or 2027, it can swap 2028 picks with the Bucks. That is probably the perfect year to swap with Milwaukee if you believe Antetokounmpo is indeed gone before he becomes a free agent in 2027. It’s close enough to losing him that the Bucks likely won’t have had time to rebuild yet. If not for the chance that the Blazers lose this pick, it would be ranked in the top five. Last year, it ranked No. 9.

14. 2031 Sacramento Kings

• Currently belongs to: San Antonio Spurs
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

13. 2030 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

12. 2030 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Washington Wizards or Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

I’ll confess, one of my big questions before I started researching this year’s rankings was whether or not the Kings would finally control a pick more valuable than any they owed. They came close, as the Minnesota pick they got in the De’Aaron Fox trade came in at No. 16. Ultimately, though, even through a swap, their 2031 pick was just more valuable. They’ve missed the playoffs in 18 of the past 19 seasons. So long as Vivek Ranadive runs that team and they don’t prove they can drastically change almost everything about how they operate, an unprotected Kings pick is almost certain to land in the lottery. If you assume Victor Wembanyama is at the peak of his powers by then, that’s a swap from the end of the first round into the lottery relatively safely. The Bucks pick is still more valuable, because unlike Milwaukee, Sacramento at least controls its own picks moving forward, so the Kings will have an easier time adding talent than the post-Giannis Bucks would. Still, 2030 is far enough out that Milwaukee will likely have at least somewhat rebounding from potentially losing Antetokounmpo by then, so this pick isn’t as desirable as its 2028 counterpart. But this swap is absolutely on the table, whereas the 2028 pick depends on everything else we’ve covered. The best swap in this group, though, is Phoenix in 2030. The Suns, like the Bucks, don’t control their own picks moving forward. But they don’t have anyone as good as Antetokounmpo to trade in an effort to recoup assets. Frankly, Devin Booker likely lost trade value with his two-year, $145 million extension, so the Suns, especially in the West, are a safer bet to be bad five years from now.

11. 2028 Los Angeles Clippers

• Currently belongs to: Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

This is the cream of the Clipper crop. Unprotected. Owed outright. Conveying at what could be the perfect time, likely beyond the prime of the current core, but soon enough that if they can’t attract a new star or two, even a rebuilt roster will still probably have some holes. This was the pick Philadelphia traded James Harden to get. The Clippers have gotten value out of that trade, but Philadelphia certainly should as well. Even if the Clippers figure out their future before 2028, this pick still has monster trade value right now.

10. 2032 Denver Nuggets

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

The only 2032 pick on the list. Denver picks have mostly rated very low on this list because of Nikola Jokić. It’s not just that he’s great, it’s that he never gets hurt and that his playing style should age well since it isn’t at all based on athletic traits. But by 2032, he’ll be 37. He might be retired by then. Even if he isn’t, very few players have ever remained stars at that age. The only big men ever to make an All-NBA Team after their 37th birthday were Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan and Karl Malone. It’s possible, but not likely. And even if Jokić is still a Nugget and still a star in 2032, there’s plenty of time between now and then for Brooklyn to leverage the chance he isn’t into a good trade. Picks seven years out are almost automatically valuable for that reason, and this is no exception. 

9. 2028 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards or Philadelphia 76ers
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

Brooklyn traded the bulk of its Phoenix inventory to Houston to regain control of its own picks. This selection, however, they managed to hold onto, and it’s a valuable swap in more ways than one. Obviously, as we’ll soon get to, Phoenix has some of the most valuable owed picks in the entire league. The cherry on top of this one, though, is that the Nets do not necessarily need to swap it with their own pick. They also have that 2028 76ers pick provided it actually conveys, and they can swap that one instead of their own if they need to. Phoenix will therefore essentially wind up with whichever of those two picks is worse, and then Washington can swap on top of that one if they want to. We won’t bother ranking those secondary swap rights separately because of how complicated this whole situation is, but any time you can swap one of multiple picks for a Suns pick, it’s going to be among the most valuable swaps on the board.

8. 2026 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Memphis Grizzlies
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Memphis will receive the less favorable of Washington’s or Phoenix’s pick, or Orlando’s pick if it is more favorable.

Yes, I know, we’ve covered the 2026 Suns already. Bear with me. The first time we addressed them, we were talking solely about Washington’s swap rights. Now we’re talking about something a bit juicier. Once Washington’s swap rights are addressed, we move down the list to Orlando. Phoenix traded secondary swap rights on its 2026 pick to the Magic two summers ago, and Orlando, in turn, packaged those rights to Memphis in the Desmond Bane trade. That means that the Grizzlies will get whichever pick is worse between Phoenix and Washington this year, but with a cherry on top: if Orlando’s pick is better than that one, the Grizzlies get that pick instead. That last part is unlikely, so Memphis should expect to receive either Washington’s or Phoenix’s first-round pick. As we assume both will be bad this year, that choice is going to be worthwhile no matter what becomes of Washington’s swap rights.

7. 2027 Brooklyn Nets

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Swap

The best swap on the board. The Nets, right now, are a tire fire. Could that change in the 2026 offseason? Potentially, but you’re betting on one of two things. Either you think the players Brooklyn drafted in 2025 and will draft in 2026 are instant game-changers, or you think the Nets are getting a star in the summer of 2026. I don’t view either as especially likely. Even the best rookies take time. What is Brooklyn’s lane as a 2026 star-chaser? The Spurs and Rockets have more assets to trade. The Lakers have the inside track among big-market teams a star might try to force his way onto. Besides, the Nets control their own 2028 pick, so they might choose to rebuild slowly regardless. Brooklyn’s only 2027 saving grace is how bad the East is. In all likelihood, though, this is a top-10 pick getting swapped for a bottom-10 first-round pick. The Rockets are great. The Nets are terrible. This swap is in the very near future. 

6. 2027 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: New Orleans Pelicans
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Yet another pick we’ve touched on to some extent. Above, we talked about how the Hawks stand to benefit from both the Pelicans and Bucks being bad. The difference here is that New Orleans isn’t relying on two teams being bad. This is just uncontrolled access to the worst-case scenarios for the Bucks. If you believe that Giannis Antetokounmpo asking out in the summer of 2026 is the most likely scenario, which I do, this is arguably the year in which you are most excited to control Milwaukee’s pick. The post-Giannis Bucks may be the worst team in the NBA, and New Orleans stands to benefit from that. As long as one of Milwaukee or New Orleans is bad in 2027, the Pelicans should pick reasonably high in that draft. The only reason this falls to No. 6 is that there’s a real scenario in which both the Pelicans and Bucks are bad, New Orleans keeps its own pick and then sends this one to Atlanta. If it were totally free and clear, this pick could justify placement anywhere up to No. 2.

5. 2027 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

4. 2031 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Utah Jazz
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

3. 2029 Phoenix Suns

• Currently belongs to: Houston Rockets or Brooklyn Nets
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Ranking the Phoenix picks is agonizing. What do you do with a team that’s bad now and likely to be bad later? In the end, this is the order I settled on for the following reasons:

• The 2027 pick is the least valuable of the three because Phoenix isn’t a true bottom-dweller yet. Devin Booker is still here. He’s still in his prime. There are decent, older role players. There’s a modicum of remaining flexibility after the Bradley Beal buyout. I would expect this pick to come in toward the middle of the lottery, perhaps slightly lower if they can make the Play-In Tournament.
• The 2031 pick is slightly better because of the long time horizon. It’s just a bit more tradable. By then, Booker will either be long gone or 35 years old. Jazz GM Justin Zanik called this “the most valuable asset on the market” at the 2025 deadline. Sure enough, no pick traded at the 2025 deadline ranks higher.
• The 2029 pick wins out as the goldilocks pick. It’s far enough away that Booker will likely have declined or been traded. It’s close enough that if Booker is eventually traded, most of the picks acquired in that trade won’t have borne fruit yet. Unlike the 2031 pick, Phoenix will still have dead Bradley Beal money on its books in 2029.

That was my logic. You could argue any order for these picks. The 2027 pick comes with the most certainty, especially since we know how good the Western Conference is now. The 2031 pick is tempting because it’s so far out and Phoenix controls none of its own picks until then, so rebuilding will be a challenge. The 2029 pick technically could wind up in Houston, but only if it is worse than both Houston’s own pick and Dallas’ pick, so if that happens, it’s likely less valuable than we figured anyway. So 2029 wins by a hair, but any of these three Suns picks could plausibly jump into the top four on lottery night.

2. 2029 Milwaukee Bucks

• Currently belongs to: Portland Trail Blazers or Washington Wizards
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Owed

Like the 2027 Bucks pick, this one comes with strings. Way up in the middle of this list, we wrote about how the Wizards get the second-most favorable pick between this one, Boston’s and Portland’s. Still, the 2029 vintage remains the most valuable Bucks pick on the board for a few reasons:

• The 2027 pick has to at least acknowledge the possibility that Antetokounmpo is still on the team. But the 2028-29 season will be his age-34 season. Even if he’s around, he’s likely declined.
• The 2026-27 Bucks technically benefit from the Damian Lillard waiver, as Lillard would have cost them well over $50 million in this season before he was waived but will now cost them only $22 million. In 2029, however, the Bucks will still owe $22 million in dead money for Lillard that otherwise would have been off of their books. Sure, Myles Turner will still be under contract, but he will be 33 at that point.
• The Bucks have very little talent and struggle at developing it when they find it. At least now Milwaukee is doing well on the minimum free agent market. Who knows where the back of their roster will be at that point.
• Milwaukee has a unique ownership structure in which governorship transfers every five years. Under the original agreement between Wes Edens and Marc Lasry, Lasry would have taken over as governor in 2028. But he sold his stake in the team to Jimmy Haslam, the owner of the Cleveland Browns. Any NFL fans will know that Haslam’s tenure has been anything but stable. If he takes over in 2028, I don’t anticipate good things for their 2029 draft pick.

1. 2026 New Orleans Pelicans

• Currently belongs to: Atlanta Hawks
• Protections: N/A
• Owed, swapped or conditional? Atlanta will receive the more favorable pick between the Pelicans and Bucks

The Pelicans had the fourth-worst record in the NBA last season. Their presumptive starting point guard is nursing a torn Achilles. There is not a starting-caliber center on the roster. They are integrating two rookies picked in the lottery, both of whom need the ball in their hands and neither of whom are strong 3-point shooters. They play in the Western Conference. They have the worst front office in the NBA. Oh, and it comes attached to swap rights with the Bucks. This article, conveniently enough, is publishing in the same week that ESPN’s Shams Charania is reporting that nothing is set in stone in regards to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future.

Forget about this year’s rankings. This pick was a lock to top them the moment it was traded. The real question is where this ranks among the most valuable draft picks traded in recent NBA history. In the interest of fairness, we probably have to ignore the madness of the 1970s and 1980s, when Ted Stepien traded picks so freely they literally named a rule after him. Let’s set the landmark Celtics-Nets trade that sent Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to Boston as our starting point for the modern history of draft pick trading. Even those picks, at the time of the trade, were probably less valuable than this one because they conveyed between three and five years away. There was uncertainty baked into their value at the time of the trade. That’s not the case here. We’re talking about a pick in the immediate future. So, since that 2013 Celtics-Nets trade, how many trades have involved a pick or picks with this much value? By my count, there are four.

• In 2013, the Pelicans traded the No. 6 pick and their unprotected 2014 pick for Jrue Holiday. They had just gone 27-55. However, they had Anthony Davis on their team and were acquiring Holiday, so while this pick was similar in theory, it wasn’t quite as valuable as the 2026 Pelicans pick. It wound up at No. 10.
• In 2015, the Kings traded the 76ers first-round swap rights in 2016 and 2017 along with an unprotected 2019 pick just for them to take on the contracts of Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson and Carl Landry. They did this to pursue free agents, including Monta Ellis, who ultimately signed with Indiana. The Kings were nearly a decade into their playoff drought at this point and had just gone 29-53, so giving away those immediate swap rights was insane. Still, the immediate picks were swap rights. The unprotected outright pick was several years down the line. However, the 2017 pick ultimately came in at No. 3, and the 76ers eagerly swapped with it.
• In 2017, Philadelphia traded a unique pick to Boston to move up from No. 3 to No. 1. That pick was the 2018 Lakers pick, but only if it landed between No. 2 and No. 5. As the Lakers had just gone 26-56, that was a reasonable bet. If it landed anywhere else, as it did (No. 10), the Celtics would instead get Sacramento’s unprotected 2019 first-round pick. The Kings were still mid-playoff drought at this point. Their 2018 pick was No. 2 and their 2020 pick was No. 12 and yielded Tyrese Haliburton. However, the Celtics got unlucky in 2019 and wound up at No. 14, where they took Romeo Langford. Still, the idea of a possible unprotected Kings pick two years out at that point was somewhat similar to the other picks we’ve covered.
• Also in 2017, Boston traded a package including Brooklyn’s 2018 first-round pick for Kyrie Irving. This is probably the winner of the “most valuable in the moment draft pick traded in this era” award, as Brooklyn’s last two owed picks had come in at No. 3 overall. However, the Nets were slightly better in 2018, so it only amounted to a No. 8 pick (Collin Sexton).

You could debate the D’Angelo Russell to Minnesota or Luka Dončić to Dallas trade, but the picks moved in those deals were at least protected. Otherwise, it’s just remarkably rare for a team to give up a pick that valuable. There’s a reason two of these trades involved All-Stars and another involved the No. 1 overall pick.

Fittingly, the last of the four was an utterly insane Kings trade that has been mocked ever since. That’s how we’ve treated the trade New Orleans made involving this pick. Derik Queen basically has to become an All-Star to justify giving it up… except if the Pelicans had seen that sort of upside coming, why didn’t they just draft him at No. 7? Given lottery reform, you can never guarantee that a pick will end up in a certain slot. However, the initial wave of Vegas’ over/unders had the Pelicans tied for the fifth-worst projected record in the NBA… and remember, they’re in the West, so if things go south, they’ll go south even quicker. The 2026 NBA Draft has three superstar prospects in Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson. There is a real chance the Pelicans are about to give the Hawks a franchise player. We’ve never had a pick this clear cut on the list before. It’s a no-brainer No. 1.

Closing thoughts

Let’s rapid fire our way through some team-specific thoughts:

• There’s no debate anymore. Houston has the best collection of future draft assets. The Rockets control the No. 3, No. 5, No. 7 and No. 28 picks on this list. The Spurs can compete with them in a player-centric bidding war with Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle in place, but when it comes to draft ammunition, the Rockets can top anyone. They can also just sit tight and use those picks. Either way, Houston remains in a stellar long-term position.
• Two teams that stood out: Portland and Washington. Portland’s value primarily comes through the Bucks. Washington’s comes through the Suns. But these are two notable teams because they are young and don’t have franchise players yet. Those strong future assets give them a hedge in case none of their current young players become cornerstones.
• The biggest riser? Atlanta. Not only did the Hawks wind up with the best pick on the entire list, but the picks they owe to San Antonio from the Dejounte Murray trade look less enticing than they previously had. Toss in that increasingly valuable 2027 pick from either the Bucks or Pelicans and the Hawks are sitting pretty.
• The Jazz previously had a bunch of low-ranked picks from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. They packaged them for one high pick, that unprotected 2031 Suns selection. Don’t be surprised to see more teams try to pull off similar moves. The Nets, given their volume of picks that aren’t especially valuable and their cap space, are a prime candidate here.
• Speaking of the Jazz… that 2027 Laker pick looked very valuable a year ago. And then the Lakers traded for Luka Dončić. Something I’ve quietly wondered: is there a way for teams expecting to land stars to try to trade away their future picks while they still look valuable, and then get a star, thus rendering the loss less significant? That was probably a one-time phenomenon and it was far from intentional, but hey, it’s a thought.
• The Thunder have lost a bit of shine in these rankings. Their highest-ranked pick is only at No. 18. Their volume is still strong, and they’re diversified enough to still likely wind up with some interesting picks, but there isn’t that single crown jewel pick in their collection anymore. They have three young stars already, so that isn’t the end of the world, but it feels notable in light of how we talk about them.
• The Spurs are a loser here as well. As we mentioned, their Hawks picks look worse than they previously did. They gave up their unprotected Minnesota pick in the De’Aaron Fox trade. They do still have those valuable swap rights in 2030 and 2031, and they have a ton of young players who have trade value, but San Antonio isn’t sitting on quite the mound of picks we thought they were either.
• On the morning after Game 5 of the NBA Finals, the Pelicans traded Indiana’s top-four protected 2026 first-round back to the Pacers for the No. 23 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. At the time, Tyrese Haliburton had an intact Achilles tendon. A week later, that was no longer true. If New Orleans still controlled that Pacers pick, it would have ranked No. 18 on this list. This is yet another reason questionable decision made by Joe Dumars this offseason. Why make this trade before the Finals ended? Haliburton may not have torn his Achilles yet, but he was playing hobbled. There was evident risk. It’s hard to imagine they had much to gain by acting early, either. At the time, the motivation behind the deal was seemingly to save money in an effort to soften the luxury tax blow that re-signing Myles Turner would have created. The Pacers still would have made the trade after the Finals. But by acting early, Indiana regained control of a critical pick ahead of its Haliburton-less gap year, while the Pelicans frittered away that No. 23 pick in its overpay for Queen.
• The degree to which Cooper Flagg saved the Mavericks cannot be understated. Their unprotected 2029 pick would have ranked in the top 10 were it not for him. The other picks would have risen substantially as well. And remember… the Rockets, Spurs and Thunder, all regional rivals to Dallas, all control one of those picks. For a minute there, it looked like Dallas could wind up handing its fiercest competitors young stars almost every year for the rest of the decade.
• Just a handful of potentially valuable picks I’d watch on this year’s trade market: Milwaukee’s pick in 2031 or 2032 as they try desperately to win enough to convince Antetokounmpo to re-sign (a pick which would immediately project as very high on next year’s list), Sacramento’s 2030 pick (they’ve offered it lottery-protected to Golden State for Jonathan Kuminga, so perhaps there is a lighter protection that gets that deal done) and Miami’s picks between 2029 and 2032 (will the Heat make a star push, because if they do so, I’d love to control their deep future draft assets since Pat Riley has to be nearing the end of his legendary career).