Updated NBA offseason winners and losers: Lakers lock up Luka Dončić, jury still out on Warriors

We are officially into the NBA’s quiet days, where we’ll be spending the next six weeks listening to the occasional rumor while waiting for basketball to return. Free agency is all but done. All the big moves we expected (a Kevin Durant trade, notably) and some we didn’t (Damian Lillard being bought out and going back to Portland) have happened. The draft has come and gone. The coaching vacancies have been filled. We’re still waiting on some stuff, notably the Warriors, who we’ll get to shortly. 

That said, for the most part, we’re in a good position to start sussing out the winners and losers of the summer. Now, for some teams it isn’t that cut and dry. So before we get to what I feel are the most definitive winners and losers, here are six gray-area teams that have a case to be viewed either way. 

The Gray-Area Teams

• Boston Celtics: On the one hand, they’re set to enter this season down four of their top six guys from the 2024 championship team (Jayson Tatum has a torn Achilles, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis were traded, Al Horford is presumably gone), to say nothing of the Luke Kornet loss, which will also hurt. On the other, the Celtics have saved over $300 million in taxes and salaries for this season alone, and they were always headed for a bit of a gutting this summer, even before the Tatum injury. Maybe a gap year isn’t the worst thing after all the deep playoff runs they’ve made over the last half-decade plus. 

• Minnesota Timberwolves: I think we can all agree that $225 million for Julius Randle and Naz Reid feels like a lot, and losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a definitive loss. But in the end the Wolves managed to work their books in a way that allows them to keep the bulk of a team that has been to two straight conference finals together. If Randle isn’t the guy we saw in the playoffs and Reid can’t develop beyond his current bench role, this is a loss. But until then the Wolves did fine. 

• Cleveland Cavaliers: Flipping Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball is a win for two reasons. First, Ball is a better two-way player and just the type of 3-and-D small forward the Cavs have long sought if he can stay healthy. Second, he isn’t on the books beyond this year, whereas Okoro is guaranteed $11 million this year and next. But … and this is a big BUT … if Ball, who already almost certainly isn’t going to play back to backs and will be on a limited minutes plan, can’t stay healthy (a distinct possibility), this looks a lot different. At that point, all the Cavs did this summer was add Larry Nance Jr. (fine) while losing Ty Jerome (not fine). We’ll see. 

• Portland Trail Blazers: It’s hard to fault any team who brings in Jrue Holiday, a guy who has won titles at his last two stops, but signing up for $100 million over the next three years for a 35-year old on the decline to finish, at best, in a play-in spot is a pretty risky move. That said, you have to start trying to win at some point, and Holiday is still good and will be a huge addition as a mentor for Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe at the very least. Getting Damian Lillard back is a feel-good story and the mentor stuff sounds romantic, but he’s also on the decline and won’t even play this season. The Blazers might’ve done well this summer. They might also have fooled themselves into thinking they’re closer to competing than they actually are. 

• Brooklyn Nets: Everyone figured that the Nets would trade one or two of their five 2025 draft picks — four in the first round — but instead they kept and used all of them, didn’t do much of anything with their cap space, and then traded Cam Johnson for Michael Porter Jr., who is due almost $80 million over the next two years. Their big score of the summer was Denver’s 2032 unprotected first-round pick. Some may call the offseason a win for that asset alone. Me? I’m pretty neutral on what the Nets have done until I see what, if anything, one or two of those draft picks looks like and get a better sense of how bad the Nuggets might be … seven years from now. 

• Golden State Warriors: We have to wait to see how the Jonathan Kuminga saga plays out. If he takes the qualifying offer and the Warriors can’t trade him, and end up losing him next summer for nothing, that’s a pretty tough beat. If they get him back on a two-year deal with a team option on the second year? That’s a different story. Once it’s worked out, the Warriors are expected to sign Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton. Both those guys would be big additions. We just have to wait to see how it all shakes out to say whether Golden State has won or lost the summer. 

And with that, let’s get to the teams that are, in full context, the more definitive offseason winners and losers.

In one stroke, the Rockets weakened an opponent (the Lakers) and strengthened their own squad by signing Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million deal. Big win. Finney-Smith fits any team, especially the Rockets and their two-way identity — adding to what will remain an elite defense and an offensive attack that is now led by Kevin Durant. 

Houston has also added Capela on a three-year, $21 million deal, providing elite center depth behind Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. Those are three entirely different big men — Capela the rim-rolling rim protector, Adams the Goliath rebounder, and Sengun the skilled scoring All-Star. 

That gives them premium lineup versatility with two-big, one-big and even no-big lineups with the super-long group of Durant, Finney-Smith, Smith Jr. (whom they re-signed on a five-year, $122 million deal), Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. 

To summarize, the Rockets basically replaced Green with Durant and Brooks with Finney-Smith, then added Capela on top of it. This was already the West’s No. 2 seed and they got significantly better. The Rockets are ready for liftoff. 

Winner: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers had three orders of business this summer: Sign Luka Dončić to an extension, get a starting center, and preserve future cap space. They went 3 for 3. It’s not to say they were all home runs, but locking up Luka alone is a major win for a franchise that would’ve potentially been in total disarray had he chose not to extend. 

Dončić adds three years and $165 million to his deal, keeping him with the Lakers through a least 2027-28. They’ll now begin their pursuit of a second star, but in the meantime they have given at least given Luka the center he needs in Deandre Ayton to be contention viable this season. 

Now, when Ayton becomes a central figure in free-agent discourse, it says a lot more about how uninspiring this class was than it does anything about Ayton. But he is an upgrade, potentially a major one, from Jaxson Hayes. 

Ayton was a premier pick-and-roll parter in his Phoenix days when he had Chris Paul as his pilot, and the Lakers are betting Dončić can guide him back to these same finishing spaces. He’s not the vertical threat of a Dereck Lively III, who flourished alongside Dončić in Dallas, but he’s a double-double guy who can score from soft roll spots, punish small switches and operate effectively as s short-roll passer, a vital counter punch to the Dončić double teams.

As for Smart, right now it feels a little bit more like name value than game value. Smart isn’t what he used to be, but he’s still a very good defender who can hopefully summon a late-career Rajon Rondo-like run for the Lakers. He’ll take some shots that will make Lakers fans want to vomit, but he’ll make some big ones, too. All of this is if he can be, and stay, healthy. He played only 34 games last season. 

Finally, by letting Dorian-Finney Smith leave for Houston and replacing him with Jake LaRavia, although it’s a downgrade for this year, the Lakers have positioned themselves to have some $45 million in cap space next summer (if LeBron is gone, which is another story). Who knows if there will be anyone major to use it on, but it’s there, and they will have two trade-eligible first-round picks next summer. 

They also have about $40 million in expiring salaries on the books for this season in Maxi Kleber, Rui Hachimura and Gabe Vincent, all of whom are possible trade asset at or before this year’s deadline. If the Lakers can get a player or two who can help this season and next but not be on the books beyond that, they can still go maxish-space shopping in 2027. 

If you’re looking at this short term, it’s possible the Lakers didn’t get enough better to be a real factor this year. It’s also possible they did if Ayton hits and LeBron and Luka figure out how to multiply each other’s impact rather than just sort of playing your-turn-my-turn as they mostly did for their short run together last season. All told, it’s a pretty good setup with significant flexibility moving forward as the post-LeBron era comes into real vision. 

You can argue whether the Lakers are taking the right approach in not totally prioritizing this year while LeBron is still on the roster, but they’ve made it clear they weren’t going to do that and 2026 and 2027 are their priorities. Through that lens, they accomplished their mission. 

The Spurs hit the lottery literally and figuratively by landing the No. 2 overall pick, where they took point guard Dylan Harper. Then they got Carter Bryant as a second lottery pick. Luke Kornet could be one of the biggest under-the-radar signings of the summer as a Wemby backup who provides two-big lineup options. Kelly Olynyk does the same with a floor-stretching element. 

And now the Spurs have locked up De’Aaron Fox on a four-year extension that could be worth up to $229 million. That’s a lot of money for what might not be a top-10 point guard in the league, but Fox is a stud, no doubt about it, and a bridge to what is an incredibly bright future for the Spurs. 

There’s a chance that one of Fox, Harper or Stephon Castle will be traded by 2028, but in the meantime, this is a team that can compete not just for a playoff berth, but in the actual playoffs, and Victor Wembanyama gets to grow through high-stakes experience rather than on a lottery team. That matters. Incredible summer for the Spurs. 

Loser: Milwaukee Bucks

There are desperate moves and there are delusional moves. The Bucks waiving Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million of his contract over the next five years so they can pay Myles Turner $107 million over the next four qualifies as the latter. 

Yes, Turner was the No. 1 player in my free agency rankings, but this is an extremely thin class, for starters, and the cost and context matters. Send Turner to the Lakers at a reasonable price, and he’s a huge get. Stay with Indiana and wait for Tyrese Haliburton to come back and that’s also good. But considering what Milwaukee forfeited in the form of cold hard cash and what little future roster flexibility they still had, this is nuts. 

Give the Bucks credit for pulling out all the stops to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in town. But does this even make him happy? Turner is a little-bit-better Brook Lopez. For that, you’re going to pay Lillard $22.5 million for each of the next five years to NOT play for you? In this apron era of extreme penny pinching all over the league, to call this a crippling move is an understatement. 

Any way you cut it, this is bad. Top be fair, the Bucks didn’t have a lot of options. They gave it all up, first for Jrue Holiday, and then Lillard. They have done everything in their power to surround Giannis with a contending roster. The moves have been increasingly desperate after Holiday, but this one goes beyond desperate. It’s delusional, and the Bucks are going to be paying for it for a long time, perhaps while watching Giannis walk anyway.

Mikal Bridges gets $150 million over four years, which is a big number. He could still be traded, but for the time being continuity is king in New York and Bridges keeps the chemistry and perimeter defensive versatility intact. 

The Knicks finally landed on a new coach in Mike Brown, who is quietly one of the winningest coaches of all time and can hopefully add some diversity and movement to New York’s offensive attack. 

Brown has won pretty much everywhere he’s coached. He’s been an assistant on multiple championship teams. He took the 2007 Cavs to the Finals. He led the Sacramento Kings to the No. 3 seed and the franchise’s first playoff berth in 16 years. If Brown does nothing else, reducing New York’s dependance on Jalen Brunson creating everything by pounding the air out of the ball and actually utilizing his bench will be significant improvements. 

To the bench part of that equation, New York has come out of free agency with two quality players in Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele, both of whom will be significant upgrades to the second units. You know about Clarkson. He’s a born scorer. For 20 minutes a night, he can get buckets, taking weight off Jalen Brunson, perhaps, in some lineups but probably more as a second-unit specialist who poses a much bigger threat than Cam Payne. 

Yabusele, meanwhile, started 43 games for the Sixers and averaged 11 points per game and 5.6 rebounds. He’s a strong defender with size but not a rim protector. Put him out there with Mitchell Robinson and two of New York’s wings and you have a serious defensive unit. Also, he can shoot, which alleviates a lot of stress from New York’s attack in lineups in which he swaps in for Josh Hart.

In an Eastern Conference that is wide open, the Knicks, who were already two wins from the Finals, meaningfully upgraded their bench and brought in a coach who will actually use it. Good stuff. 

Let’s keep this simple: The Mavericks tripped over their own feet and fell into the No. 1 overall pick, which they had less than a 2% chance of landing back in May on lottery night. It doesn’t matter what else happened this summer. After losing Luka Dončić by way of their own stupidity, scoring Flagg is just an incredible stroke of luck. Russell can eat the point guard minutes until Kyrie Irving gets back. When and if healthy, the Mavericks could be a force come late February when Irving returns. 

Loser: New Orleans Pelicans

Before the draft, the Pelicans, which is to say Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk to the Wizards for Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey and the 40th pick. On the face of it, it’s not awful. Poole is a similar player to McCollum at this point, only younger, and there’s perhaps some upside on Bey (who tore his ACL in March of 2024) as 3-and-D support for Zion. 

One small issue: the contracts of McCollum and Olynyk are set to expire after this season, while Poole and Bey are on the books for north of $40 million in 2026-27. There’s a reason the Wizards got rid of Poole at basically their first opportunity. He put up pretty good and efficient numbers last season, but he’s not as impactful for actually winning games as McCollum and now you’re tied to him for an extra year. 

The Pelicans should be looking to clean up their books, not clog them with good-stat-bad-team guys. Sorry, but the Pelicans are not the Warriors. They’re not going to pull a championship contributor out of Poole. This was a strange move, to say the least. 

But objectively, it wasn’t the strangest thing the Pelicans did this summer. That distinction belongs to their trade on draft night, when they sent their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Hawks for Derik Queen. 

Queen, to be fair, is an extremely skilled big man to land at the back end of the lottery (even if he doesn’t seem to fit terribly well alongside Zion Williamson as a non-shooter), and trading up 10 spots for a shot at a guy with star upside isn’t crazy. But the price they paid is. 

That pick they sent to Atlanta is actually the better pick between New Orleans and Milwaukee. Keep in mind, New Orleans won 21 games last season and the Bucks are a Giannis injury or trade request away from being in the lottery. It’s objectively crazy that the Pelicans didn’t at least put some protections on that pick. 

Maybe top-five protected? There’s almost no chance the Hawks still wouldn’t have done that deal with that qualifier, and the Pelicans still then would’ve had a chance to retain a high pick in what is projected to be an awesome class if things go south for either them or the Bucks, which, again, is a distinct possibility. 

Perhaps Queen will turn out to be a superstar. If that’s the case, he’ll be worth this price. But that’s a hell of a gamble to take on a guy that some mocks had going outside the lottery to begin with. 

The Clippers have absolutely aced the summer. Losing Norman Powell hurts, but he is in line for a pricey raise next year and everything the Clippers have done this summer is aimed at having clean books in 2027 when James Harden and Kawhi Leonard come off the books. 

In the meantime, they have taken a team that was already a monster last season (they just happened to run into Nikola Jokić in a seven-game first-round war) and made it significantly better. The Clippers didn’t just let Powell go for the savings; in hindsight, they pretty much knew they were going to get Bradley Beal, who got bought out by the Suns. 

In Phoenix, Beal made $50 million last season. Fifty freaking million. That is robbery any way you slice it. But at $5.3 million this year, Beal is suddenly one of the highest value players in the league for the Clippers, who have added not just Beal, but also Brook Lopez and Chris Paul for a TOTAL of $18 million next season. None of those guys are what they used to be, but at that collective price they are huge additions. 

Lopez is particularly interesting. For starters, the Clippers now have the best backup center in the league and don’t have to go small whenever Ivica Zubac is off the floor (last season they were rocking with Nic Batum and Ben Simmons at the five). Thanks to Lopez’s ability to shoot 3s, they can also roll out two-center lineups with both Lopez and Zubac, a valuable option to have in an an increasingly big league where half the teams can play credible two-big lineups. 

John Collins, meanwhile, was a forgotten man with the Jazz, but this is a guy who averaged a hair shy of 20 points and eight rebounds per game on 53/40/85 shooting splits last season. 

In Harden, Collins will have his best pick-and-roll pilot since Trae Young, and on a team with two All-NBA level players (Harden and Leonard) and another All-Star-caliber guy in Zubac, he won’t be overtasked with a being a top-line guy as he was in Atlanta when his stock was near All-Star status. 

Collins is not Aaron Gordon, but there are similarities and look what happened to Gordon when he downsized from go-to guy in Orlando to role-player extraordinaire in Denver. At the very least, Collins combines with Lopez to give the Clippers enviable frontcourt depth.

Now add in Paul, who played all 82 games for the Spurs last season and was a top-10 assist man at over seven per game. He’s obviously not the player he used to be entering his 21st season, but like Beal at $5.5 million, he’s a very helpful player at $3.6 million for one year, even as a potential third-stringer behind Harden and Kris Dunn. Big-time summer for the Clippers without committing to anything beyond 2027, so their long-term books are in order, too. 

Loser: Phoenix Suns

If you’re a Phoenix optimist you’re telling yourself they got younger and brought in a couple quality big men. You like the Brooks addition to bring some defense to the perimeter. You’ve talked yourself into Jalen Green as an electric scorer poised to solidify Phoenix’s long-term backcourt next to Booker. 

But let’s be real. The Suns lost Kevin Durant and are paying Bradley Beal $100 million over the next five years to play for the Clippers. At least the Bucks got Turner for buying out Damian Lillard. All the Suns did by overloading their books with dead Beal money for the next half decade was duck some tax money. 

Then they went out and signed Devin Booker to a two-year, $145 million extension. Booker, who has $171 million left on his current deal, with start making north of $70 million per year when the extension triggers in 2028. Booker, arguably, is a top-20 player. He’s made two All-NBA teams, same as Julius Randle, and one of those was as the last player selected in 2024 when Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young and Kyrie Irving all fell short of the 65-game minimum. Last season he ranked 72nd, 80th and 90th in VORP, Win Shares per 48 minutes and Box Plus-Minus, respectively. 

And now he’s entering his age-29 season. When the extension kicks in he’ll be 32. The Suns have no realistic path to putting a contender together, or probably even a credible playoff team. So now they’re paying Booker more money that he’s worth in a vacuum in a situation that makes it even more of a head-scratching contract. Were the Suns in position to compete for real, fine. Even better if they had a way to add another star alongside Booker. But they’re not. And they don’t. Paying Booker this kind of money to rot on the vine of a dying team is ridiculous, even if he is a deservedly beloved homegrown star. 

In the real an unromantic world, Booker is the lone asset the Suns have to kickstart the rebuild they refuse to admit they need. They should have been looking to trade him. Now, on this contract, and this age, they might not even be able to if they end up wanting to down the line once the reality hits when they’re paying Booker and Beal damn near $100 million a year 2028 to fight for a play-in spot. 

The Hawks did work this summer. They started by trading for Kristaps Porziņģis, giving Trae Young a stretch center with which he can do major damage in the extra space that sort of combo creates. 

Then the Hawks swindled the Pelicans on draft night, trading down from the 13th pick to No. 23 where they took Asa Newell (another in a suddenly impressive stable of long, athletic defenders).

On top of that, they picked up the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-rounder — which could be extremely valuable as it is actually the better pick of the Bucks (who could really stink if Giannis asks out) and Pelicans — for their troubles. 

And now they have pulled off a sign-and-trade for one of the real free-agent prizes in this admittedly pretty thin class in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who was deservedly coveted by a lot of teams as an ace perimeter defender and 3-point shooter who broke out as a key cog for a Timberwolves team that has made consecutive conference finals appearances. 

Add to that Luke Kennard, a 43% 3-point shooter who will space the floor considerably next to Young and Porziņģis. Take a look around, and the Hawks have pretty expertly outfitted their roster in optimal support of Young, providing him the perimeter defense he needs to insulate his deficiencies on that end. 

With Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels, last year’s No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson on the perimeter, and in certain lineups Onyeka Okongwu at the five, Atlanta can seriously defend around Young, and all those guys are capable secondary playmakers as well, which will be an awesome dynamic off Young’s gravitational pull. 

Atlanta watched what the Pacers just did in the Eastern Conference and said: Why not us? And you know what, why not the Hawks? This is suddenly a damn good team, and they probably aren’t even done as they have executed all of this while remaining under the tax line and still have access to almost $10 million in a Traded Player Exception from the Dejounte Murray deal. Seriously, the Hawks are flying high. 

Loser: Indiana Pacers

• Key additions: Jay Huff
• Key losses: Myles Turner

The first crippling loss for the Pacers, of course, was Tyrese Haliburton, who ruptured his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. He might never get back to that moment and opportunity, and the same goes for the Pacers as they continue to search for their first championship as an NBA franchise. 

It’s still sickening the think about. The Pacers were there to play in Game 7. Haliburton came out on fire. That was going to be a basketball war to the very end. Instead, OKC walked away with the title and Indiana limped into the offseason down its best player before also losing Myles Turner in the most shocking move of the summer. 

Everyone assumed Turner would be back, but after Haliburton’s injury the Pacers didn’t want to cross the luxury tax line for what is probably going to be a lost season and allowed the Bucks to outbid them for the big man. It might turn out that Turner did the Pacers a favor by not making them pay him for four more years, but right now, to go from a halftime lead in Game 7 of the Finals to losing Haliburton for a year and then Turner for good is just an incredible twist of the knife. But hey, they got Jay Huff. 

Perhaps the biggest news of July 1 was Jaren Jackson Jr. staying with Memphis on a five-year, $240 million extension. That was not a guarantee. The Grizzlies were limited in how much they could offer Jackson but managed to get themselves into a cap position to offer him the max, avoiding the nightmare scenario of his becoming a free agent next summer when the Lakers could be armed with max space. Massive win. 

One of the possible casualties of creating the cap space to extend Jackson (who underwent toe surgery in July) was thought to be Aldama, who was a target for a lot of teams, but they get him back, too. Another big win. 

Finally, the Grizzlies add maybe the league’s best backup point guard in Ty Jerome, poaching him from the Cavs. Jerome is kind of awesome. He’ll do more than spell Ja Morant. He could be a legit crunch-time player.

Losing Bane hurts, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a reasonable replacement and the Grizzlies got four first-round picks back on that deal. That means cheap depth moving forward, or a hell of a package for another trade — or trades. Love what the Grizzlies have done

• Key additions: Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones
• Key losses: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony

Just as I like the Memphis side of the Desmond Bane deal, I also think the Magic were justified in paying such a steep price for a non-All-Star player. Bane is exactly what the Magic need offensively. He can shoot the lights out and create in a bunch of different ways. He’s just a tough guy to deal with. Orlando has an elite defense and needed to add some legitimate scoring punch to have a chance in a wide-open Eastern Conference. 

But Bane isn’t a point guard. He can do point guard things, but for the Magic, getting Jones, who started for Phoenix but will likely come off the bench in Orlando, solidifies a lot of those minutes with a standardized point guard presence. Jalen Suggs will be back in the starting lineup and Orlando’s defense figures to be nasty again, only this time with an appreciably upgraded offense to go with it.

The Nuggets finally found a way to get off Michael Porter Jr.’s contract, sending him to the Nets along with their 2032 first-round pick for Johnson, who is a monster addition in the Nikola Jokić ecosystem. And they get Bruce Brown back on a vet minimum deal, too? 

Brown’s departure was the beginning of Denver’s bench clearing after the 2023 championship, and though he hasn’t really played much meaningful basketball over the last two seasons, which he’s spread across three teams, we know he thrives in Denver’s setup as a cutter, creator, physical finisher and energy defender.

Cam Johnson, meanwhile, is every team’s dream. He’s one of the best movement shooters in the league, coming off screens and relocating with great spatial sense; he hit 39% of his 3s last season on over seven attempts a game, and next to Jokić he is going to find himself being thrown open more than he can imagine.

In Johnson and Tim Hardaway Jr. you get two shooters for the price of Porter, and Denver added Jonas Valančiūnas to help plug the years-long hole that has been the non-Jokić minutes. Denver is a top-tier contender. 

I had big hopes for the Pistons, who were reportedly in play for Nickeil Alexander-Walker and/or Santi Aldama. They didn’t get either of those guys and had to settle for Caris LeVert, who’s pretty good with a modernized shot diet but not the kind of impact that NAW would’ve had. 

Duncan Robinson’s shooting helps to fill the void left by Malik Beasley, whose career is in the balance amid a gambling investigation. But strictly basketball speaking, Robinson is not Beasley, who made 319 3-pointers last season, second only to Anthony Edwards’ 320. 

Jaden Ivey coming back is basically an addition to last year’s team, replacing Dennis Schröder’s loss at least, but again that’s just a swap. Detroit had a chance to make a real move this offseason, like Orlando, for instance, and instead just sort of treaded water.