UEFA World Cup qualifying schedule, table, results: Spain's tricky path, could Italy miss a third straight?

UEFA World Cup qualifying schedule, table, results: Spain’s tricky path, could Italy miss a third straight?

It may have been bubbling away since the spring, but European World Cup qualifying kicks off en masse this month as 24 teams join the battle to earn their places in North America next summer. The expansion of qualifying spots to 16 and an international calendar that must accommodate the Nations League has led to a restructure of qualifying with the 54 competing nations spread across six groups of five and six groups of four. The latter includes the teams who were involved in the Nations League play offs and finals earlier in the year; for them qualifying begins in earnest this week.

That means the coming days will see openers for some of Europe’s biggest beasts. Germany, Spain, Portugal and France are among those yet to kick a ball and in six game groups it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that a raft of bad injuries or poor form could have them sweating on whether they are in the play offs or even battling to stay alive. It might seem implausibl,e but look what is happening to Italy (again).

With that in mind, here are five teams to keep a close eye on in European qualifying.

1. Spain

The European champions head into this qualification cycle as arguably the favorites to win the tournament proper next summer. The core of Luis de la Fuente’s side is unchanging because of its excellence, their style of play will suit the blistering temperatures of the USA and Mexico while in Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams and Pedri they have young talent who can take the game away from their opposition in an instant. All that and Rodri, probably the best player in the world, is back. Come the summer he might just be approaching his peak post-ACL injury too.

You likely sensed a but was coming, but you should know, it’s not a big one. There’s just a little caveat to throw into the mix. Spain do have to get to the World Cup if they’re going to win it. And while you would make the odds of qualification very high indeed, they’ve been handed a fairly tricky group and a rather small window for wobbles. Away in Bulgaria is probably a trickier place to start a qualification cycle in theory than in practice, but from there on out it’s away in Turkey with Georgia rounding off the group. That’s one team replete with talented midfielders and another who have punched above their weight for years, who have a man to win a game on his own in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Suppose the Paris Saint-Germain winger conjures up something special at the Camp Nou, or Turkey finally play up to their talent level and get the win in Konya to start an impressive qualification campaign. Both of these are relatively unlikely outcomes, much more than Spain just snuffing out any real opposition in those first three games of qualification and cruising to top spot in Group E. It is just that there are only six games for all of this to play out and a lot of strange things can happen in such a short space of time.

2. Sweden

It is not so long ago that Sweden had the look of Scandinavia’s crisis team. Missing the World Cup had been bad enough, but a 24-team Euros without the 21st century mainstays would have seemed unimaginable to many. A disastrous qualifying campaign dovetailed with a collapse to the third tier of the Nations League where they were beaten home and away by neighbors Norway. Enter Jon Dahl Tomasson, the former Danish international who has immediately put a spring in Swedish steps.

Playing against admittedly lower level opposition in League C, Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak found ways to click as a front two and the goals continued to flow in a summer where those two became the Premier League’s most wanted. Sweden might have to negotiate the entire group stages without Dejan Kulusevski, but his Tottenham team mate Lucas Bergvall is a dynamic young talent. So are Yasin Ayari of Brighton and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Hugo Larsson. A group of Slovenia, Kosovo and Switzerland will not be without its challenges for the young Swedes, but topping the quartet should be a very realistic prospect. From there on, this side could absolutely emerge as dark horses for the tournament as a whole.

3. Italy

Eleven years after the Azzurri last played a World Cup match, it can’t go on like this, can it? *Gruff Yorkshire tones* It can. There may be no more significant qualifier in Europe this month than at Debercen’s Nagyerdei Stadion, where Israel host Italy at the midpoint of Group I. In the likely event that both sides beat Moldova and Estonia, Israel will go into the match three points clear in second place having played a game more. Lose in Hungary and, with three of eight games played, Italy would be on the brink.

A 3-0 defeat to Norway — finally looking like the serious European outfit they have been profiled as since the day Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard emerged — has Italy in almighty trouble. Luciano Spalletti was the latest manager to pay the price for the faltering of the national team, who he had guided to the first knockout round at Euro 2024 before the damaging defeat at Oslo. Gennaro Gattuso is the sixth manager of the World Cup-less cycle and he is “wound up like a spring” to get started.

He is, however, running into the same troubles that have bedevilled plenty of coaches (even as Roberto Mancini found a way to win Euro 2020). There hasn’t been an Italian forward with 20-plus goals to his name since Alessandro Del Piero retired in 2008 and Mateo Retegui’s decision to abandon European football for Saudi Arabian cash will bring back ill memories of Mancini’s defection. The rest of the squad looks strong but not so strong that you would back them for a handsome win over Norway when they meet again in Milan in November. Without that it may be playoffs or bust for the four time world champions.

4. Belgium

Joining Italy in “big teams under pressure” corner is a Belgium side who have long since left their golden generation era behind. Some of that is just a quirk of scheduling, Rudi Garcia’s side sitting four points off leaders North Macedonia having played two fewer games. Still those quirks mean Belgium could spend a fair wedge of these qualifiers playing catch up at a time when their performances have hardly been exceptional.

In North Macedonia, Belgium had all the possession and chances to kill the game off but were ultimately pegged back in the last minute while it took brilliance at the death from Kevin De Bruyne to beat Wales 4-3. This may not be the team of Eden Hazard, Toby Alderweireld and prime KDB, to name a few, but there is talent young and old that really should be making this easier on themselves. Few national teams across the world could better a front four of De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, Jeremy Doku and Romelu Lukaku. Belgium should be better and if they aren’t, they leave themselves very vulnerable to slipping further off the pace.

5. Greece

The two decade hangover from winning Euro 2004 is nearly over. The Greek national team is back… or it will be shortly. It is hard to be sure just yet if a team that had an average age of 22.7 in its last competitive match is ready to qualify for the World Cup but the signs are that before too long this team will be ready to compete at a high level. After all they’ve already got a win at Wembley to their name and fought back from defeat in Athens to earn their promotion to the top tier of the Nations League with a 3-0 win in Scotland. One of the stars of the show that night was Konstantinos Karetsas, wanted by Arsenal and compared to Kevin De Bruyne.

Plenty of other smart clubs believe there is a talent well to be tapped in Greece. Brighton spent $40 million on Olympiacos Charalampos Kostoulas before he had won his first senior cap while Christos Tzolis was the subject of an unsuccessful enquiry from Crystal Palace last month. Drawn against Belarus, Denmark and familiar foes Scotland, these coming weeks offer a real chance for Ivan Jovanovic’s side to kick off what could be a lengthy period of success in Greece.