Predicting every MLB contender’s biggest trade deadline move: Brewers get Eugenio Suárez, Phillies land new CF

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is a little more than a week away. Teams have until 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31, to make their most impactful additions to prior to the stretch run and postseason. The old August and September waiver trade system is no more. That hasn’t been a thing since 2019. If you want to make a meaningful trade, you have until next Thursday.

“I think we’re going to have to take it up to the last minute and see where we are,” Guardians GM Mike Chernoff told The Athletic about his team’s trade deadline strategy. “It’s our job to prepare on all sides of this to know every single opportunity that we have to improve our team, or on the flip side, to take advantage of the moment if we are not in contention for a spot. I’m hopeful we can pull ourselves back into closer contention.”

Thanks to the third wild-card spot, more teams are in the postseason race at the trade deadline than ever, which muddies the water a bit. More teams in the race means fewer teams are eager to sell. That creates a seller’s market. It also leads to more MLB player-for-MLB player trades, like last year’s Isaac Paredes for Christopher Morel swap. Contenders have to help each other.

Ranking top 25 MLB players who could move at the trade deadline, plus potential landing spots

R.J. Anderson

With the deadline a week away, we’re going to pull out our crystal ball and attempt to predict who each contender’s most impactful deadline addition will be. We have to set some ground rules first:

• These trades all happen in the same “universe.” Every contender wants Eugenio Suárez, but only one team can get him.
• These are not necessarily each team’s “big-name” addition. It’s the trade pickup we think will most move the needle.
• We’re focusing on 2025 impact only. Some trades will be made with 2026 in mind, but we’re focused on 2025.

How do we define a contender? We have to set a cutoff somewhere, so, for our purposes, we’re going with teams that were within three games of a postseason berth heading into Tuesday. That gives us 14 teams, or just about half the league. Another four teams were within a half-game of our cutoff. Apologies to them, though it is kind of their fault for not being included here.

We’re not going to bother to put together full trade packages (they will give up these prospects to get this player, etc.) because, as a wise man told me during my days as a fan, your trade proposal sucks. Our only concern here are the trade additions who be the biggest 2025 difference-makers for contenders. Here now are our predictions. Come with me, won’t you?

Just about every contender has checked in with the Pirates about Keller, who is a rock solid mid-rotation starter with the upside for more. The Red Sox have gotten much better with pitcher development the last few years, and that doesn’t just mean prospects and minor leaguers. It also means helping a veteran like, say, Aroldis Chapman have his best season in years. Keller is good as he is and Boston is the kind of team that can help him unlock that next level. They also have a deep prospect base, deep enough to pique Pittsburgh’s interest even while making the tippy top guys (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, etc.) off-limits.

The Cubs fell out of first place for the first time since April 2 on Monday night. This is their only guaranteed year with Kyle Tucker, so there should be urgency to act at the deadline, and Justin Steele’s season-ending elbow surgery created a need in the rotation. A big need too. The Cubbies need a starter who can take the ball in the postseason, not just help them navigate the final two months of regular-season innings. Lugo is likely to decline his $15 million player option after the season, so he’s a rental, and thus the Royals are expected to cash him in as a trade chip. Chicago has the upper-level outfield prospects to get Kansas City’s attention (can they talk them down from Owen Caissie to Kevin Alcántara?), and Lugo fits their type as a guy with a deep arsenal and not blow-you-away velocity.

Detroit’s bullpen has unraveled the last few weeks. They’re in no danger of falling out of first place in the AL Central, so they can be patient and let the trade market develop, though they clearly need relief help to put themselves in the best position for October. Soroka, who is still somehow only 27, has an unsightly ERA but strong underlying numbers as a starter for the Nationals, and last season his stuff really played up in the bullpen for the White Sox. I suspect a smart team is going to pick him up at the deadline and shift him into a relief role, possibly as a multi-inning setup guy. The Tigers are a smart team and manager A.J. Hinch is savvy enough to use Soroka in such a role. I would be surprised if Detroit splurges for a big-name reliever. Soroka makes sense as an under-the-radar pickup.  

Once again, the Astros are leading the AL West, and they’re doing it despite Yordan Alvarez not playing since May 2 because of a hand injury and a rotation that looks suspect behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. The outfield needs the most help. They’ve handled rookie Cam Smith’s on-the-fly transition from third base to right field about as well as possible, and Jake Meyers was having a career year in center before his recent calf injury. Left field has been a revolving door though. Jose Altuve hasn’t played there much the last few weeks and a Cooper Hummel/Taylor Trammell platoon can only take you so far. Ward, with his Crawford Boxes-friendly pull righty power, would lengthen the lineup nicely and plug that left field hole. Would the Angels trade him within the division, especially when they’re close enough to the third wild-card spot to think they’re in the race? The bet here is yes, as unlikely as it may seen. 

The Dodgers needed bullpen even before Tanner Scott exited Monday’s game with a forearm issue. Scott and Kirby Yates have underwhelmed, and who knows how effective Blake Treinen will be when he returns from his own forearm issue in the coming weeks? He’s been out since mid-April. POBO Andrew Friedman doesn’t like overpaying at the trade deadline, but he doesn’t have much of a choice right now. The Dodgers are the most win-now team in the sport and the bullpen is a huge weakness. The Cardinals are hanging around the wild-card race themselves and I suppose they could keep Helsley, though he will be a free agent after the season, and I think the market for high-end relievers will be too strong to pass up. I could see St. Louis buying and selling at the same time. Trade Helsley, then pick up a different (controllable) reliever to backfill his innings. The Dodgers seem likely to add multiple relievers at the deadline. I’ll bet on Helsley being the most impactful.

This one is probably a long shot, but I’m going with it. Monday night’s win moved the Brewers into first place in the NL Central and also gave them the best record in baseball. It’s the latest into a season they’ve had the game’s best record since 1982. The vibes are immaculate right now and just about everything is going right. Why stir the pot at the trade deadline? I don’t see it that way. I see an excellent team that is as well-positioned to make a World Series run as any point in franchise history. Caleb Durbin has been red hot the last few weeks at third base, though Suárez would still be an upgrade, plus smart teams figure out how to make the “more good players than lineup spots” thing work. Milwaukee might finish with only three double-digit home run guys this year. Suárez has game-changing power and is an excellent clubhouse guy, plus the Brewers are pretty much the only contender with rotation depth to spare. The Diamondbacks are said to be seeking young pitching in any trade. The Brewers have it. They match up very well as trade partners.

More than anything, the Mets need bullpen help, and I would expect POBO David Stearns to target lower cost under-the-radar types (like Huascar Brazoban last year) than headline-worthy stars. The Mets also need a center fielder. Robert is having a terrible year overall, though he’s been better offensively the last few weeks, and he’s still a great defender. The White Sox obviously will not pick up his $20 million club option after the season. They’re going to trade Robert for whatever they can get at the deadline. He’s only 27 with tremendous physical gifts. Get Robert out of that miserable situation with in Chicago and put him on a contender where he doesn’t have to be his team’s first-, second-, third-, or even fourth-best player, and I think he will thrive. The Mets seem like the ideal situation for him. Robert can settle in and just be one of the guys rather than the guy.

The Phillies badly need an outfielder. A center fielder, preferably. The Yankees are rumored to be open to moving one of their three non-Aaron Judge outfielders (Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Jasson Domínguez) for a badly needed third baseman. The Phillies and Yankees don’t match up well for an outfielder-for-third baseman trade, which is where the Twins come in. Rental Grisham for rental Castro makes no sense for Minnesota. If they’re selling, they won’t want a rental. They’ll want controllable young players, so a three-team trade in which Grisham goes to Philadelphia, Phillies prospects go to Minnesota, and Castro goes to the Yankees could be in the cards. Grisham is having a very productive year and would instantly become Philadelphia’s best outfielder. Castro is having a productive year as well, and would step in at third base for the Yankees. The switch-hitter’s two swings (pull heavy as a lefty and opposite field focused as a righty) would mix very well with Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch.

Padres GM A.J. Preller is always active at the trade deadline. He can’t help it. Based on this past offseason, ownership won’t allow him to add much to payroll, if at all, limiting his options. San Diego needs pitching (who doesn’t?), a DH, and a catching upgrade. Escarra is a sneaky popular trade target league-wide. The Yankees’ rookie backup catcher is an elite pitch-framer with strong underlying offensive skills, including above-average contact rates and exit velocity. Escarra could start for more than a few teams, including San Diego, where the Elias Díaz/Martín Maldonado tandem isn’t getting it done. I am certain Preller will add multiple players at the trade deadline. I’m betting on Escarra being a pleasant surprise down the stretch, taking over as the starting catcher, and giving the Padres much more offense behind the plate while being no downgrade defensively. The Yankees can afford to trade Escarra because Austin Wells is entrenched as the starting catcher and Ben Rice has begun to see more action behind the plate as a way to get his bat in the lineup. Trading Escarra for help elsewhere on the roster (bullpen?) is sensible.

Donovan Solano and the since-released Rowdy Tellez lead the Mariners in starts at first base, so yeah, the position has been a black hole this season. For a few years, really, since Ty France stopped hitting after the 2022 All-Star Game. Naylor is one of several rental Diamondbacks who figures to be on the move at the deadline. He’s having a very productive season and his power lefty bat would slot into the middle of the order nicely alongside Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. The Mariners are top 10 in baseball in runs scored per game. It’s a good offense. There are days there are a few too many easy outs in the 6-7-8-9 lineup spots though, plus there is nothing wrong with adding to a strength. Naylor to the Mariners makes a ton of sense.

We’re used to the Rays having stacked bullpens and more good relievers than roster spots. Things haven’t played out that way in 2025. The late innings have been an adventure every night for manager Kevin Cash. Halvorsen is a classic Rays type. It’s huge stuff. We’re talking a triple-digit fastball with two swing-and-miss secondary pitches (slider and splitter). It’s also an ERA north of 5 (more than two runs higher on the road than at Coors Field!) and a below-average strikeout rate. Halvorsen has “get away from the Rockies, join a smart team, and instantly become a dominator” written all over him. The Rays are as good a bet to do it as any team.

The Rangers are hanging around the wild-card race and GM Chris Young seems far more likely to add than subtract at the deadline. Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien only have so many peak years remaining, you know? At the same time, I’m not convinced Young will go big for rental players. Instead, I think he’ll focus on players with control beyond 2025. The Athletics are said to be listening on their starting pitchers and Springs, who has been solid and is signed through 2026 with an option for 2027, has been their most reliable starter. He would fit a longer-term strategy for Young, should he go that way. Spring could also help this year’s rotation and bullpen by pushing Jack Leiter and/or Kumar Rocker into a relief role. More than a few people in the game think Rocker would be a lights-out one-inning reliever.

The bullpen injuries are beginning to pile up for the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Ryan Burr (shoulder), Yimi García (ankle), and Nick Sandlin (elbow) have all hit the injured list this month, and depth guy Paxton Schultz (finger) went down on June 28. Johnson fits Toronto’s late-inning mold as a spin rate monster (he throws his curveball 70% of the time), and is a player who could bring back a meaningful return for the disappointing Braves. There is no such thing as too many good relievers in October. Even if García and Sandlin return soon (Burr is done for 2025), there’s plenty of room for a reliever like Johnson in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.