Cowboys season outlook: Dak Prescott is healthy, but is that enough for Dallas to rebound from forgetful 2024?

Welcome to NFL Thoughts, a wide-ranging, in-depth look at some of the top storylines of the 2025 season. Last week, we examined the 49ers’ difficult 2024 and ensuing busy offseason and evaluated how much optimism there should be entering 2025. Today, we’re looking at another NFC team that we questioned ahead of last season and then endured a disappointing, injury-filled campaign after years of success: the Cowboys.

Jerry Jones has spent the last several years backing — and talking — himself into a corner regarding the contracts of his biggest stars. This year, he’s doing the same with Micah Parsons, but there isn’t the same level of consternation there had been regarding Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Parsons showed up to mandatory minicamp, even with a deal nowhere to be found, and the superstar pass rusher’s willingness to do that automatically paints Dallas’ annual top offseason storyline in a more positive light. One would imagine — even though it has already taken much more time than necessary — that a deal will get done.

The second-biggest storyline is new head coach Brian Schottenheimer. After flirting with several big names, the Cowboys opted to stay in-house, elevating their offensive coordinator of the past two seasons to his first head-coaching gig in the wake of Mike McCarthy’s departure. Schottenheimer will not only take on head coaching duties for the first time ever but also play-calling duties for the first time since 2020. It’s a big leapfrog for him after Jones was unwilling/unable to make a big leap in the hiring process. To write Schottenheimer off already wouldn’t be reasonable or fair, but there are significant doubts.

After all of that — plus a trade for the mercurial George Pickens — we can finally get to the most important storyline: Can the Cowboys actually compete again? From 2021-23, with Prescott healthy, only the Chiefs won more games than the Cowboys. One could point to Prescott’s health as the primary reason behind a 7-10 record in 2024, but Dallas went only 3-5 in his eight starts before his injury, pointing to bigger issues than quarterback health. Whether they’ve been rectified or not remains TBD.

Cowboys offense: Can Prescott bounce back, and what does it look like under Schottenheimer?

Prescott was a bonafide star in 2023. He finished second to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting and led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes. He posted his lowest interception rate since he was a rookie, one year after leading the NFL with 15 interceptions.

In 2024, though, Prescott missed throws, stared down receivers, got fooled by defenses and forced balls into tight windows. It was a stunning regression: eight interceptions in eight games after nine in 17 games in 2023. Seven of the eight picks came on throws at least 10 yards downfield.

Prescott’s turnover-worthy throw rate of 9.2% on these throws was a career high and the fourth-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Drake Maye. That’s two of the most mistake-prone quarterbacks of the modern NFL and a rookie playing in awful surroundings. Prescott posted a 3.3% rate in 2023 and had only been above 7% twice in eight seasons before last year. Last year didn’t make sense. He simply put the ball in harm’s way far, far too often downfield.

Running through the unsightly film of Prscott’s picks, I noticed all eight came on straight dropbacks, rather than play action. Last year, Prescott had a 16.9% play action rate, not only a career low but the fourth-lowest mark in the league behind Caleb Williams (who was poorly coached), Cooper Rush (Prescott’s backup) and Kirk Cousins (who could hardly move months removed from a ruptured Achilles).

Prescott was also in shotgun a career-high 74% of the time, and when he was in shotgun, the Cowboys threw the ball 76% of the time, which would have been the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Overall, Dallas had the second-highest passing rate in the first half of 2024. It was 21st from 2021-23.

10 NFL futures bets to make right now: Dak Prescott redemption, Bijan Robinson explosion, long shot CPOY, more

Tyler Sullivan

If the past is any indication, Schottenheimer wants to bring that 2024 number way down. In his three-year stint as Seahawks offensive coordinator, only the Titans and Ravens had a lower passing frequency. Some of that was Russell Wilson scrambling, of course, but Chris Carson emerged from seventh-round pick to standout under Schottenheimer, averaging nearly 1,200 rushing yards across 2018 and 2019.

Schottenheimer inherits, on paper, a similarly underwhelming backfield this season in Dallas. Offseason additions Javonte Williams (3.6) and Miles Sanders (3.5) have been two of the worst running backs in the NFL over the past two seasons, ranking 46th and 48th, respectively in yards per carry among 50 qualifying rushers. The team drafted Jaydon Blue in the fifth round, and he’s a major talent, but he had four fumbles last year and is a bit undersized. We’ll see how much work he gets. Dallas needs his explosiveness desperately after ranking 29th in explosive rush rate last year.

The Cowboys didn’t acquire Pickens to lean into a running game headed by an uncertain trio, though. Part of Prescott’s turnover issues were his receivers’ inability to get open. ESPN’s receiver scores graded 116 wide receivers. One Cowboy — Lamb at 13th — was the only one in the top half in “open” score. KaVontae Turpin was 75th, Brandin Cooks 80th, Jalen Brooks 89th, Jalen Tolbert 93rd and Jonathan Mingo (whom the Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick for!) 115th.

As such, the Pickens addition was much-needed, and Prescott is already singing his praises.

“You turn on that guy’s tape, he’s getting separation,” Prescott told reporters last week. “He’s got separation even when he’s not getting the ball at times. And when he doesn’t have separation, he’s still making the catches.”

The skill has never been a question. Pickens was 24th in open score last season. He can win 50-50 balls, blaze downfield and produce after the catch. Since Pickens entered the league in 2022, only two players have more catches on throws 20 yards or more downfield. Conversely, only one has more catches than Lamb on throws 20 yards or fewer downfield.

This is the best wide receiver duo Prescott has had, and they complement one another. Keeping the mercurial Pickens, who reportedly had bad practice habits and got in sideline spats in Pittsburgh, focused will be key.

Finally, for Prescott to deliver those deep balls to Pickens, he needs a line that can afford him time. Tyler Smith is an emerging star, and Tyler Booker was a first-round draft pick. His underwhelming combine numbers are a concern, but he also delivered the best quote of the combine.

“I just love the aggressiveness and the tenacity of the game of football. It’s legal assault out there,” he said. “I love football. The brand of football I play, I make guys not love football anymore.”

Dallas certainly loves that, and if he can open up rushing lanes, it’ll be all the better.

Things may come down to last year’s first-round pick, left tackle Tyler Guyton. Guyton is the near exact opposite of Booker: a tremendous athlete but extremely raw. Jared Dubin broke down Guyton’s rookie-year struggles, and they were the ones you’d expect from a raw prospect moving to left tackle as an NFL rookie: penalties and down-to-down consistency.

Still, the Cowboys have a strong track record developing offensive linemen, the interior is a physical bunch, and Terence Steele is at least passable at right tackle. Protecting Prescott’s blindside is a big task, and Guyton must be up to it if the Cowboys are to get their offense humming again.

How Cowboys offensive linemen are maximizing their potential with NFL’s top OL guru in their own backyard

Garrett Podell

Cowboys defense: Can they get back to creating havoc?

In modern defense, there are two ways to succeed: dominating down-to-down (which is really difficult unless you have overwhelming talent) and creating chaos in the form of turnovers and sacks (which is less difficult if things bounce your way).

After excelling in the latter from 2021-23 under Dan Quinn — no one forced more turnovers than the Cowboys’ 93 — Dallas did neither in 2024 under Mike Zimmer. To be fair, some of that should have been expected. Quinn used a bunch of smaller, faster players to create chaos all over the field. In 2023, Dallas played dime (six defensive backs) on 60.4% of its snaps, not only the highest rate on record (since 2007) but a massive, massive outlier in present-day football. The second-highest rate that year belonged to the Steelers at … 23.2%.

Zimmer prefers a much more traditional, organized style. The Cowboys, despite having similar personnel from the year before, played dime on just 2.5% of snaps. Zimmer tried to bring in some players to help ease the transition, but it was still often a matter of sticking a square peg into a round hole. And that was before the injuries. Parsons missed time. Pro Bowl ballhawking cornerbacks Daron Bland and Trevon Diggs missed a lot of time. DeMarvion Overshown, one of the bright spots from a lost season, suffered a brutal injury that will limit his availability this year. The Cowboys were 24th in defensive success rate and 29th in run defense success rate.

They didn’t do a whole lot to address those issues. Diggs is still recovering from yet another knee surgery. The biggest additions were Dante Fowler Jr., who had 10.5 sacks last year for the Commanders but struggled against the run, and Kenneth Murray, who hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing. Same with cornerback Kaiir Elam, who could have a big role depending on the health of that position group. Second-round EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku and third-round cornerback Shavon Revel Jr., both regarded as strong talents who slid in the draft, will also be counted on early.

The saving grace can be — and might have to be — Parsons. After returning from injury in Week 10, Parsons had 11 sacks, 2.5 more than anyone else and more than the Giants had as a team. His 49 pressures over that span were seven more than any other player. He is a one-man wrecking crew.

The best-case for Dallas is Parsons plays at an all-world level, and his presence gives a still-effective Fowler a lot of one-on-one opportunities. Former first-round pick Mazi Smith finally starts to show improvement in his third season alongside Osa Odighizuwa in the middle, and the aggressive, athletic Marist Liufau can create havoc while also playing with more discipline after an up-and-down rookie year. Bland gets back to his playmaking ways, and Dallas, even if not dominant down-to-down, causes a lot of negative plays. Overall, the players adapt much better to Zimmer’s schemes in Year 2.

The worst case scenario is … well, we saw it play out last year pretty much, and it wasn’t close to good enough. The 468 points allowed were second-most in franchise history.

Cowboys’ Micah Parsons on negotiations for contract extension: ‘I’m going to get mine no matter what’

Chris Bengel

Outlook: Is a healthy Prescott and better supporting cast enough?

There are questions on defense. There are questions at running back. There are more questions than answers. On one hand, we saw Prescott single-handedly lift an offense with superb play two years ago. On the other hand, last year was a struggle all around.

The other issue here is the NFC East. The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions. The Commanders made the NFC Championship Game. Not only that, but the NFC East has cross matchups with the loaded NFC North and AFC West this year, divisions that produced three playoff teams each last year.

The Cowboys are likely not the juggernaut that produced three straight 12-win seasons. But with internal defensive improvements plus a focused Pickens, they will certainly be a dangerous team and a potential playoff one, too. If Prescott struggles again, though, or Schottenheimer underwhelms, or if the defense can’t get it together, there is the very real possibility of a second straight postseason-less year. And that’s a lot of “if”s.

Previous ‘NFL Thoughts’ stories

1. Projecting 2024 rookie QB class in 2025: Can Caleb Williams bounce back, Jayden Daniels continue his rise?
2. Can 49ers rebound after disappointing 2024? How Christian McCaffrey’s return, remade defense impact outlook