2025 NFL Week 1 early odds: Can Bengals stop Week 1 woes? Eagles favorites over Micah Parsons-less Cowboys

And we’re back! At long last, the 2025 regular season has arrived, and a full slate of NFL action is on our doorstep. What a time to be alive! Not only will we be sitting back and watching our favorite teams begin what we all hope is a push towards a Lombardi Trophy, but we’ll also look to make a little scratch along the way. In that pursuit of eternal glory and a bloated bankroll, it’s time for us to begin our weekly tradition once again and examine the early lines for the week. 

Unlike lines we’ll see develop in the weeks to come, the Week 1 odds have been out for quite a while. Specifically, lines dropped almost in lockstep with the schedule release from back in May. With that in mind, these odds have had time to marinate, which makes for a fascinating dive into how Week 1 is crystallizing. 

Week 1 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Notable movement, trends

Cowboys at Eagles (Thursday)

The season begins with a whopper in the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys heading to Philadelphia to take on the defending champion Eagles. Of course, the last week has been dominated by the seismic trade of Dallas’ star pass rusher, and the lines have moved away from Jerry Jones’ club. After opening at Eagles -7, the odds moved up a half-point to -7.5, crossing over the touchdown threshold. Unsurprisingly, the total also ticked up to 47.5 after opening at 46.5. 

Last season, the Eagles won and covered both games against the Cowboys. Historically, Dallas has been a decent bet out of the gate, particularly against divisional opponents. Since 2017 (Dak Prescott’s second season), the Cowboys are 8-0 on the ML and 7-1 ATS in division games in the month of September. However, Prescott is 2-11 (ML and ATS) in his last 13 starts (including playoffs) as an underdog, so something will need to give. 

Chiefs at Chargers (Friday, in Sao Paulo) 

Kansas City has largely held as a 3-point favorite since the open, but the line has jockeyed at various books between Chiefs -2.5 and Chiefs -3.5. Of course, this is a neutral site game in Brazil, so that brings with it another variable to factor in. Despite the international angle to this contest, this is a familiar spot for Patrick Mahomes as he finds himself favored over the Chargers for the 12th straight time. Kansas City has also been quite comfortable beginning the season away from Arrowhead, as they are 6-0 (ML and ATS) in the last six Week 1 games away from home. The franchise is also 3-0 (ML and ATS) all-time in international games. 

Equally as impressive, the Chargers are also stellar when they are outside of Los Angeles, owning a 5-0-1 ATS record in the last six Week 1 games away from home. Unlike the Chiefs, however, the club is 0-3 ATS all-time in international games. 

Dolphins at Colts

Indy is a slight home favorite over the Dolphins, as the 1.5-point spread has held this summer. While the spread has been at a standstill, the total jumped up to 47 after initially opening at 45.5. That could be due to the Colts naming Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback, giving books a better sense of how the Indianapolis offense could run. 

With Daniel Jones under center, it’ll be interesting to see if he can shake what has been historically poor starts to the regular season for the Colts. Over the past 10 years, the Colts are 0-9-1 straight-up in Week 1 and are 1-8-1 ATS. Over that stretch, they have a -10.2 points per game differential. Similarly, the Dolphins are looking to avoid a repeat of last season when they went 1-3 over the first month and failed to cover any of their opening four matchups. 

Bengals at Browns

Are folks following the “fade Bengals in Week 1” trend? The Browns opened as a 6-point home underdog, but that number has since been bet down below the key number, and Cincinnati is now a 5.5-point road favorite. It’s hard not to blame them if that’s the case. After all, the Bengals are 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 ATS in Week 1 and Week 2 when Joe Burrow starts. If that trend continues and the Browns pull off the upset, they’d be cashing what is roughly at +200 ticket. Cleveland did name veteran Joe Flacco the starting quarterback, giving them some experience under center entering Week 1 while rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders serve as backups. 

Giants at Commanders

The Commanders were the Cinderella of the 2024 season thanks to the emergence of Jayden Daniels. What does he do for an encore? That looms as one of the major questions that could define the 2025 season. Last season, Washington won and covered both games against the Giants, the first time that’s happened since 2011. Here, they stand as 6-point favorites at home, an area they thrived in last season, where Daniels was 7-2 ATS. Meanwhile, New York will look to avoid extending their horrid streak in Week 1. In the last eight openers, the Giants are 1-7 (ML and ATS). As for the total, it stands at 45.5, and bettors may be eyeing the Under after it went 11-6 in Giants games a season ago. It is worth noting, however, that Russell Wilson’s presence could change the calculus there. 

Cardinals at Saints

The odds have rather dramatically shifted further towards the Cardinals. Initially, Arizona opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, and as the season has inched closer, that number has ballooned to -6.5. This comes as New Orleans oversaw a lukewarm quarterback battle that ultimately ended with Spencer Rattler being named QB1. That doesn’t create the highest ceiling for the Saints, particularly against an underrated Arizona defense. The Cardinals have also begun seasons on high notes, owning a 4-0 ATS record in their last four road games in Week 1. Moreover, Kyler Murray has been a road warrior for bettors in his career. The Cardinals quarterback has a 25-12-2 ATS record on the road in his career. That 67.6% cover rate is the second-best by a starting quarterback since 1970. 

Panthers at Jaguars

A couple of intriguing storylines collide within this matchup between Carolina and Jacksonville. For the Panthers, it remains to be seen if Bryce Young’s strong finish to 2024 truly means the former No. 1 pick has turned the corner. Speaking of No. 1 picks, how will Liam Coen transform Trevor Lawrence? Upon looking at these odds, the Jaguars are favored by a field goal, but money may be coming on Carolina. This game opened with the Jaguars laying 3.5 points, and the line has since dropped the hook to make it Jaguars -3. That could be folks buying into Young, who was 7-2 ATS over his last nine starts last season. Meanwhile, the Jags are 1-6 (ML and ATS) in their last seven home games in September. As for the total, it’s held at 46.5. The Over was a combined 22-12 between these two games last season. 

Raiders at Patriots

People seem to be buying into a New England bounce back. The new-look Patriots — spearheaded by first-year head coach Mike Vrabel — initially opened as a 1.5-point favorite over the Raiders. That number has since bumped up towards a field goal with the home club laying 2.5 points. For as much as New England is being lauded for its revamp, Las Vegas also comes into Week 1 with a new regime after hiring Pete Carroll and trading for Geno Smith. That new duo will look to snap an 11-game straight-up losing streak as an underdog. Interestingly, the total in this game moved down to 42.5 after opening at 43.5 after both teams improved on offense, and following a season where the Over was a combined 20-14 between the two of them. 

Steelers at Jets

Who doesn’t love a little revenge narrative? Not only will Aaron Rodgers be taking on his former Jets squad, but Justin Fields will be squaring up against the Steelers after these two quarterbacks essentially swapped places this offseason. Pittsburgh finds itself as a road favorite, but the line has moved back towards the home club somewhat. The Steelers initially opened as a 3-point favorite, but have since ticked below the field goal threshold to -2.5. Quarterbacks aside, Mike Tomlin has typically gotten his players ready to fire on all cylinders in Week 1, particularly on the road. In the last four road Week 1 games, the Steelers are 4-0 (ML and ATS). On the other sideline, Jets first-year head coach Aaron Glenn will look to change the fortunes of the franchise, and that could start with a better showing out of the gate. Since 2017, New York is 6-20 straight-up and 7-19 ATS in September. 

Buccaneers at Falcons

The Buccaneers have been the class of the NFC South for the last half-decade and are favored to once again sit atop the division. If there was a team to knock them off, however, it’d be the Falcons, who have Michael Penix Jr. entering 2025 as the full-time starter. Despite the promise around Atlanta, the Bucs have the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Tampa Bay opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, and that number has since grown to Buccaneers -2.5. This movement comes in spite of Atlanta sweeping the season series (both ML and ATS) a year ago. That could be due to Todd Bowles’ stellar Week 1 record. The Bucs head coach is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 in his career, which includes a 3-0 ATS record as a Week 1 favorite. Despite both of these offenses boasting some explosive offensive talent, the total has moved down from 48.5 to 46.5. 

49ers at Seahawks

The public may be betting on a San Francisco rebound. After an injury-filled season in 2024, the Niners come into Week 1 as a 2.5-point road favorite over the Seahawks, who will usher in Sam Darnold as their new quarterback. This spread is knocking on the door of a field goal after initially opening at 49ers -1.5. San Fran wasn’t kind to bettors down the stretch last season, owning a 1-8 ATS record over its final nine games in 2024. As they look to get that turned around, the Seahawks will hope they can avoid a repeat of their 1-5 ATS record as a home underdog from a season ago. 

Titans at Broncos

The opening slate has a lot of one-score spreads, but one of the rare exceptions to that fact can be found in Denver, where the Broncos host the Tennessee Titans as a 7.5-point favorite. The Titans are coming into 2025 after finishing with the worst record in the NFL a season ago, which also featured a 2-15 ATS record (worst in a season since at least 1970). However, those struggles did bring them No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. Will a new quarterback help them turn things around? Maybe. But Week 1 will be a slog as the Broncos were 8-0 ATS as a favorite last season and were 11-5-1 ATS overall. 

Lions at Packers

Welcome to Lambeau Field, Micah Parsons! The Packers will usher in their star pass rusher with a delicious matchup against their division rival, the Detroit Lions. That trade may have helped swing the odds rather dramatically as the Lions opened as a 1.5-point road favorite. Now, it’s Green Bay that is now the favorite, laying 2.5 points. Historically, the Lions have owned this matchup as of late, as they are 6-1 straight up against the Packers in their last seven matchups to go along with a 5-1-1 ATS record. Jared Goff has also been fantastic to begin seasons, coming into 2025 with an 8-0 ATS record in Week 1 in his career. 

Texans at Rams

With Matthew Stafford’s offseason back issues seemingly behind him, the Rams are 2.5-point favorites against the Texans in Week 1. While the attention will likely most be paid to the quarterbacks (Stafford and C.J. Stroud), the head coaching matchup is interesting from a betting perspective. Houston’s DeMeco Ryans is 1-6 ATS as a head coach in September, which includes a 0-4 ATS run last year. Overall, the Texans have struggled to begin the season away from home, as they are 2-6 straight-up and 1-7 ATS in road Week 1 in the last 20 years. Meanwhile, Sean McVay is 4-0 ATS as a favorite in Week 1 in his coaching career, but the Rams are coming off a season where they went 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. 

Ravens at Bills

Buffalo holds as just a 1-point favorite over the Ravens after this line initially opened at Bills -1.5. These are two of the elite teams in the AFC, and this rivalry has been a tale of two stories from a betting standpoint. Over the last five regular-season games between these two, Baltimore has covered. However, Buffalo has covered both of their recent playoff head-to-heads, which include their divisional round matchup last season. The Ravens are also 7-1 (ML and ATS) in road primetime games since 2022. 

Vikings at Bears (Monday)

The total for this NFC North showdown has bumped down a noticeable amount, as it sits at 43.5 after opening at 45.5. That could be playing off the Under owning a 20-14 combined record between these two last season, along with the Under hitting in six-straight primetime games involving Chicago. As for the spread, it has flipped entirely. The Bears opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but now it’s Minnesota laying the 1.5 points. Despite now being favorites, the Vikings are 0-6 straight-up and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road primetime games.