2025 NFL mock draft: Focusing on betting market prop projections with six trades, including one in the top 10

He’s -10000 to be the first overall pick, meaning bettors have to risk $100 to win $1. It’s about as much of a lock as you can have at this point.

Hunter is up to around -300 to go No. 2 overall after the market shifted in his favor over a week ago based on reporting that he’s the preference over Abdul Carter.

Carter is around -250 to go third following the Travis Hunter-to-Cleveland buzz picking up steam over a week ago. At this point it seems likely we know the exact order of the first three picks.

Campbell is around -160 to go fourth overall, and many have tabbed him as the top option for the Patriots if they are unable to get Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter.

We’re starting to get into a little bit of uncertainty here with Graham just -120 to go No. 5 overall at DraftKings — though he’s out to -150 at FanDuel.

Jeanty is around -150 to wind up with the Raiders, so he’s going to be our pick in this mock draft, but it’s worth noting the Raiders’ next most likely position to be drafted first is a cornerback, even though none besides Hunter are favored to go in the top 10.

Membou is -380 to go outside the top six picks at DraftKings, but offensive line is the -130 favorite to be the Jets’ first pick. That makes this an easy match at No. 7 overall.

Walker doesn’t have a draft position prop as of this writing but he’s -900 to go top 10, so he’ll need to be placed somewhere in the next three picks. The Panthers are +125 to take a edge rusher/D-lineman first and +150 to take a linebacker first at DraftKings, so this seems like the right place for the Georgia linebacker/edge rusher.

The Saints are -105 to take a quarterback first at FanDuel after the news that Derek Carr’s season is in jeopardy, while Sanders is -300 to go outside of the first eight picks at Over 8.5.

Warren is favored to go to the Colts at +160, while he’s also -155 to be a top-10 pick. The easiest thing would be to just stick him on the Bears as they’re +350 to be his landing spot, but they’re also +600 to take a TE first at FanDuel while the Colts are +115. So to make it work, I’ve put together a trade where the Colts get Nos. 10 and 72 for Nos. 14, 45 and 151, allowing the Bears to move down a few spots and receive a massive Day 2 boost.

The 49ers have three positions relatively close in their first pick prop, with DL/edge at +190, O-line at +220 and corner at +270. So why go with the third option? Johnson is the first man out in the top-10 pick markets at both DraftKings and FanDuel, sitting around +150 at both sites to go in the top 10. Some of that is tied to the Raiders as a landing spot, but it also gives us an opportunity to have him just miss by putting him here and aligning with the market.

We don’t have much to go on surrounding McMillan’s draft value at this point other than DraftKings listing him as +350 to go top 10, but we do know that receiver is +135 to be the Cowboys’ first pick at FanDuel, well ahead of the next closest position (offensive line at +410). So we’ll slot him in here, as is common in mock drafts.

Offensive line is the +130 favorite to be the Dolphins’ first pick at FanDuel, and the only reason it isn’t higher is that there is a big perceived gap between the top two offensive tackles (both of whom are expected to go in the top 10) and the next tier. However, Banks is -165 to go Under 13.5 at DraftKings, and it doesn’t seem likely he’d go before this point.

Stewart has been a popular prospect in terms of team visits, and all we know about his stock is that he’s -2000 to be a first-round pick at DraftKings, and only one other player actually available in the market (you can’t bet on anyone we’ve covered so far at this point) has shorter odds (Jihaad Campbell). DL/edge was third in terms of odds for the Bears’ first pick, but it’s too early to go with a prospect at either of the other two positions (running back, offensive line).

Green is -150 to go Under 17.5 in terms of draft position, but he has longer odds than Stewart to go in the first round (-1200 vs. -2000), which is why we’re placing them in this order. The Falcons have the shortest odds of any team available (which is everyone not picking the top five) for their favored position, with DL/edge at -270.

While the Chargers are favored to take DL/edge (+130) over tight end (+450) at FanDuel, many mocks have connected them with Loveland, Jim Harbaugh’s former player at Michigan. However, DraftKings has Loveland at -225 to go Under 19.5, putting him out of range. The Cardinals are likely looking to trade down, so this looks like a potential match where the Chargers trade Nos. 22, 55 and 125 for Nos. 16 and 78.

The Bengals are -155 to take a DL/edge with their first pick and Williams is -130 to go Over 15.5, which takes him out of range for the Falcons. This seems like a great landing spot as a result, and he also makes sense in a trade-up scenario for the Chargers at No. 16. Williams is the last relative lock to go in Round 1 at the edge position at DraftKings (he currently isn’t even available to bet, unlike Stewart and Green, though his draft position odds slot him behind those two players).

This could be a spot for Matthew Golden as well, who is 50/50 to go over or under 17.5 at DraftKings. But offensive lineman is -105 to be the Seahawks’ first pick at FanDuel while receiver is just +430. Zabel is -1000 to be a first-round pick — twice as long of odds as Golden (-2000), but the big gap in the draft position prop settles it for us.

The Bucs are the perfect landing spot for Campbell, who is -160 to go Over 18.5 at DraftKings. Tampa Bay is slightly favored to take DL/edge first at +160, but their +180 odds to take a linebacker first is shorter than any other team for that position aside from Carolina.

Omarion Hampton is also a sensible fit here, and Denver is +140 to take a running back first while receiver is just +320. However, Golden is already a value on the board relative to his draft position prop, while Hampton is -180 to go Over 19.5, so this would be the first slot where we’d consider putting him. Instead, we have the Pats getting aggressive to get Drake Maye a potential long-term No. 1 receiver in exchange for Nos. 38, 69 and 106, which still leaves New England with one Day 2 pick (No. 77).

There are other players on the board more of a lock to go in the first round than Simmons at -500, but the reason for this deal is Houston being -230 to take an offensive lineman first. With such a dire need, it’ll need to consider trading up to make sure not to be sniped, and this one doesn’t involve losing any picks in aggregate with Nos. 25 and 89 being dealt for Nos. 21 and 123, securing Pittsburgh another Day 2 pick after losing one in the DK Metcalf trade.

Barron could be well off the board by this point if the smoke surrounding his draft stock is to be believed, but he’s -200 to go Over 17.5 at DraftKings, so he hasn’t even been in consideration for us for more than a few picks at this point. The Cardinals are a big question mark in the position of first pick market with no position shorter than +230, so even though corner is +380 to be their first pick, Barron should be in play.

The Packers are even odds to take a DL/edge first, and Harmon is the type of prospect who fits their profile. He’s also -1000 to be a first-round pick, so we want to be sure to slot him in before the end of this mock.

I expect Emmanwori goes a little higher than this, as he’s -1400 to be a first-round pick while the next safety on the board, Malaki Starks, is -650 to go in Round 1 with a 50/50 draft position of 23.5 at DraftKings. That makes this a logical spot for Starks with safety second in odds for position of Minnesota’s first pick, but the Vikings instead take the higher-rated safety here, at least according to the first-round market.

It’s questionable whether Dart deserves to be a first-round pick, but he’s -140 to go Under 24.5 at DraftKings as well as -425 to go in Round 1, so it’s going to be the Steelers at No. 21 or someone else in a trade, or in this case, both. While teams typically don’t trade down if they have a QB they’re targeting, the Steelers were able to land an additional Day 2 pick in the deal mentioned earlier and only have to sweat a few picks hoping someone else doesn’t trade up from Round 2.

Hampton is -180 to go Over 19.5 but -1400 to go in the first round, so we’ll need to figure out a spot for him. The Bears are favored to take a running back first at FanDuel but it’s unlikely they select him as high as No. 10 if Ashton Jeanty is gone. Here, they use the 45th pick gained in their first trade with Indy to move from No. 39 to 26 while also getting Nos. 90 and 127 from the Rams. That leaves the Bears with Stewart, Hampton and Nos. 41, 90, 127, 148, 151, 233 and 240 while giving Ben Johnson a young back for his offense.

The Ravens are even odds to go DL/edge first, and it could go either way with them taking the interior lineman in Grant or the edge rusher in Donovan Ezeiruaku, with the latter being slightly more of a lock to go in Round 1. I like the fit of Grant a little bit better, so we’ll go with that route.

Ezeiruaku’s “slide” lasts one pick, with Detroit -170 to take a DL/edge first and edge by far the more likely option of the two. The Lions could also be a trade-up candidate in order to secure a higher-rated edge, and pairing Nos. 28 with 60 would be enough to get them to No. 17, so it would only take slightly more (or Arizona being willing to take a little under value) to get into a position for their guy.

Intra-division trades do happen in the draft, even in the first round — who can forget the draft day sequence that saw the Eagles hop the Giants for DeVonta Smith by trading with the Cowboys, who got the last laugh with Micah Parsons two picks later? This is lower stakes with the two top NFC East contenders swapping places as the Eagles trade No. 134 to move up three spots for their latest Georgia defender despite being favored to go DL/edge first.

The Bills are -105 to go DL/edge first and Nolen is -350 to be taken in Round 1, with only one player remaining having shorter odds to go in the first round at DraftKings. That makes this a pretty easy pairing.

The Chiefs are +105 to take an offensive lineman first versus +175 to go DL/edge, and there are options both on the outside in Josh Conerly Jr. and at guard with Booker. The difference is that Booker is -400 to go in Round 1 while Conerly is half that at -200.

Washington is +180 to go DL/edge first, with offensive line at +320 and cornerback at +360. All three positions have options remaining who are minus odds in the Round 1 market, but Hairston at -250 is a bit shorter than Conerly at -200 or edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at -145. And with Hairston meeting with the Commanders this week, it’s a pick that makes sense here.