2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Ranking all 15 lottery teams by who has most at stake in Cooper Flagg sweepstakes

We think of the NBA Draft Lottery, first and foremost, as a way for the league’s poor and downtrodden franchises to replenish their ranks and take the first steps toward meaningful winning years down the line. Yes, there are certainly teams like that in this year’s field. That description could more or less apply to Charlotte every year.

But this is a somewhat unusual lottery field in that a number of teams in very different, much more promising situations have something on the line. Oklahoma City could win the championship this season while also walking away with a top-seven pick. There are teams in this year’s field that have real ambitions to trade for a superstar this summer. A reigning NBA Finalist is praying for ping pong balls this year.

With the lottery approaching on Monday night, let’s look at every team in the field and measure who has the most at stake. Who’s comfortable either way and who’s hanging on the edge of their seat? Who wants Cooper Flagg and who needs Cooper Flagg? We will consider the odds each team brings into the lottery here. If you’re starting at the bottom, it probably isn’t fair to say you have the most at stake here. But every team involved will be included and all of them have something significant at stake when the envelopes start opening.

Tier 7: Don’t you have enough already?

15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Philadelphia 76ers): No, the Thunder don’t have a chance at Flagg. What they do have a chance at is a top-seven pick. If Philadelphia’s pick lands between No. 1 and No. 6, the 76ers keep it. There is a 64% chance of that happening. If it falls to No. 7 or below, though? It goes to the Thunder, and the whole league collectively groans at the thought of a 68-win team that already has the presumptive MVP, two other young stars and a historic collection of future picks adding yet another top prospect in the draft. Nobody wants this.

14. San Antonio Spurs: History says when a generational power forward or center is available in the lottery, the Spurs tend to jump up and grab him. They’ve won lotteries for David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Victor Wembanyama already, and pairing Wembanyama with Flagg would create one of the most dangerous defensive front courts in NBA history. But if the Spurs don’t land a top pick … so what? They already have the last two Rookie of the Year winners (Wembanyama and Stephon Castle). They made a big move for De’Aaron Fox at the deadline, and they are widely expected to pursue further veteran upgrades with Wembanyama progressing faster than anticipated. The Spurs will contend with or without lottery luck. 

13. Houston Rockets (via Phoenix Suns): When the Rockets traded for a bundle of future Suns picks, they likely expected to wind up back in the lottery in 2027 and 2029, but 2025? That was a happy accident. It’s just hard to get too excited about a lucky lottery for the Rockets when they’re barely using some of the lottery picks they already have. Reed Sheppard barely played as a No. 3 overall pick rookie. Jabari Smith, the No. 3 pick in 2022, came off of the bench down the stretch this year. Sure, the Rockets lack an obvious franchise player like Flagg, but his defense and maturity isn’t exactly needed here. The Rockets want a star scorer. That’s the one thing Flagg isn’t (yet).

Tier 6: You did this to yourself

12. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks traded away their ability to tank between 2025 and 2027 in the Dejounte Murray deal. The Spurs have their pick. They’re only here because they have Sacramento’s top-12 protected pick that is overwhelmingly likely to finish at No. 13. Therefore, they can’t jump up. All they’re rooting for is Sacramento staying put, and considering they’ll get Sacramento’s top-10 protected pick next year if this one doesn’t convey, they’re in good shape either way.

11. Chicago Bulls: Coming into the season, the Bulls owed their top-eight protected pick to the Spurs. Any smart team looks at that reality, shrugs, and says “let’s go out and lose a lot of games!” Of course, these are the Bulls we’re talking about here. So naturally, they gave away their best player, Zach LaVine, to get control of that pick back, allowing them to compete for a meaningless play-in berth in peace. Well, they got what they wanted, and now, they emphatically do not deserve to be rewarded for that shortsightedness with Flagg or any other top-four prospect.

Tier 5: A franchise player would go so far …

10. Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers are a fairly unusual rebuilder in that they’ve accumulated an impressive collection of role players (Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan, Anfernee Simons), but haven’t found anyone that figures, at least for now, to ever make an All-Star Team. They need a star to orbit around, and it would be nice if the lottery gave them one, but that doesn’t have to happen quite yet. Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson both showed progress this season and both at least have All-Star physical traits. Give them another season before panicking. Frankly, given the absurd depth of the Western Conference, they’ll probably be picking in a somewhat similar lottery slot regardless next year.

9. Toronto Raptors: Toronto is in a similar position to Portland: a lot of good players, no great ones (though, in fairness, Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram have at least made All-Star teams). The difference here is that the Raptors are in the East. Portland can reliably get back into the lottery if it wants to. It’s pretty hard to miss the playoffs in the East! Only six teams went above .500 this season, and given the talent in Toronto, they’re headed for middle-of-the-standings purgatory if they don’t luck out on lottery night. That creates some degree of stakes, but given how intentional Masai Ujiri was about putting this team together, it doesn’t seem as though he was ever all that eager to tank anyway. They traded OG Anunoby without getting a first-round pick back. This is what they wanted.

Tier 4: Could really use a win

8. Sacramento Kings: The Kings only have a 3.8% chance of keeping their pick (it needs to jump into the top four), but stranger things have happened. The Hawks won the whole thing last year with worse odds than that (3%), so even if it’s unlikely, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. The Kings are still reeling from not only trading Fox, but from maintaining the sort of institutional disarray that compelled him to ask out in the first place. That’s what happens to teams like the Kings that don’t know what they’re doing. Veterans tend not to be happy with teams like that. Rookies, though, have no choice but to play ball in order to get market-value contracts and avoid restricted free agency. The Kings tried replacing Fox with a veteran in LaVine. It went poorly. They could really use a timeline reset by getting a top rookie, so even if they probably won’t keep their pick, it would mean a ton if they actually could.

7. Dallas Mavericks: The Luka Dončić trade was obviously received poorly, but it’s going to get a whole lot worse in the coming years. Dallas does not control its own first-round pick between 2027 and 2030. Now look at who controls those picks: one each goes to Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Those are the Mavs’ three closest geographic rivals. If the Mavericks aren’t careful, they’re going to hand young stars to the teams they directly compete with. They’ve already lost thousands of fans. That number could grow drastically if Dallas doesn’t replace Dončić with a new, homegrown star in the near future. This pick and their 2026 pick are their last chances to find one in the draft this decade. The stakes, therefore, should be through the roof. The Mavericks just haven’t acted that way. They could have tanked at the end of the season. Instead they rushed Anthony Davis back. If they were smart they would fire Nico Harrison and bring in a new GM who would trade Davis and all of their remaining veterans to set up a 2026 tank. They obviously haven’t done so yet. The Mavericks are acting as though they truly don’t care what happens beyond Harrison’s contract. They made their bed, so they can sleep in it.

6. New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans are in a pretty uncertain place right now. They just traded Ingram, Dejounte Murray may not be the same after his torn Achilles, and of course, Zion Williamson can never stay healthy. That would make the addition of a new young star pretty significant. But this team is still reasonably talented. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that with a healthy Williamson, it could win in the somewhat near future. Until there’s some resolution on the Williamson front, though, nothing in New Orleans is too high stakes. We need to know if they’re sticking with this era or moving onto the next one before we can tell how important a single lottery pick would be.

Tier 3: Breaking the cycle

5. Utah Jazz: All three of the teams in this tier have 14% chances at Flagg, and all three of them are in the middle of multi-year tanks. The Jazz are just the one that needs Flagg the least. They already have a recent All-Star in Lauri Markkanen, they have a mountain of future draft picks from other teams, and maybe most importantly, they seem not just comfortable for another tank, but eager for one. Their owner, Ryan Smith, is a major donor for BYU. You know who’s going to BYU next season? AJ Dybansta, the top prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft. Utah would probably like a chance to keep him in the state, so while they’d be thrilled to land Flagg, it’s not do-or-die for them yet.

4. Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte has LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller as a foundation, but its asset base isn’t as strong as Utah’s, and its front office doesn’t have the track record to suggest long-term winning is absolutely coming. Charlotte, as either the Hornets or the Bobcats, has not won a playoff series since 2002. There is always going to be urgency that comes with that, and Flagg being a local product out of Duke makes him all the more appealing. The stakes here are significant. Ball hasn’t made the playoffs yet and he’s headed into his sixth season. How much longer will he tolerate losing?

3. Washington Wizards: Utah has Markkanen and its picks. Charlotte has Ball and Miller. Washington has nothing like that yet. While youngsters like Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington are promising, there isn’t a long-term centerpiece here yet. Remember, before Michael Winger took over, this was a franchise that was notoriously hesitant to tank. There’s no telling how much longer owner Ted Leonsis allows them to do it. The Wizards need to get a cornerstone in the somewhat near future, and this is obviously a great chance to do so.

Tier 2: Justifying their investment

2. Brooklyn Nets: In pure basketball terms, the Nets may not need lottery luck as much as the teams in the last tier. They’re in New York. If they can’t draft a star, they can trade their picks for one who wants to live there. But think of the cost the Nets paid for the right to make this, specific pick (and, to be fair, next year’s as well): three potentially very valuable Suns picks and one potentially very valuable Mavericks pick. Essentially, this lottery could tell us whether that trade was a success or a failure. If they get Flagg? Great work, no notes. If they stay at No. 6, while the Suns pick they sent Houston comes in at its expected slot of No. 9 (or, God forbid, moves up)? Then the trade is a disaster, because it will have meant paying a small fortune in draft value from the Suns and Mavericks to gain little or nothing in the 2025 draft. It’s rare for so much to hinge on a few ping pong balls, but that’s where Brooklyn stands here.

Tier 1: Jobs are at stake

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Daryl Morey and Nick Nurse will both be back next season, but think about the year Philadelphia just had. The Paul George contract looks like a bust after only one year. Joel Embiid’s extension, given his health, is a potential cap killer for the rest of the decade. If the 76ers have another year like the one they just had, the reality is that people are going to lose their jobs. But if they have a lucky lottery night? Well, everything changes. Say they get Flagg. Then, suddenly, overpaying Embiid and George doesn’t matter because Flagg is a star locked into a four-year rookie deal. There’s balance there. Even if they stay at No. 5, that’s a meaningful trade asset to use to try to improve around the Embiid-George-Tyrese Maxey core on the chance they stay healthy. If they lose the pick, the year they just had was for nothing. They go into next season with more or less the same roster they just had, and if they do anything less than genuinely contend in the East, that might mark the end of an era in Philadelphia. No team has a wider range of outcomes here. Get a top pick and with Maxey and Jared McCain in place, the 76ers could retool around a solid young core. Lose their pick entirely, and it’s an unmitigated disaster.